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Opinion: South China Sea: US-China confrontation looms large

arifnsn September 29, 2023

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The dust is still settling after a whirlwind of high-level meetings featuring China, the US and Asean that discussed South China Sea issues. Do those discussions and related developments portend a leaking status quo or a backslide into confrontation?

While members of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations may still have some agency if they can find a clear common voice, the South China Sea issues are mainly driven by the race between China and the United States for hegemony in the region.

And how bad is the situation? In July, China’s President Xi Jinping told US elder statesman Henry Kissinger that US-China relations were at a crossroads. Some think the US, with its telling military movements, is preparing for war with China. And yet, when the Asean summit wrapped up in Jakarta earlier this month, the joint statement did not even mention the South China Sea disputes.

At the East Asia Summit that week, President Joko Widodo of host nation Indonesia appealed to participants – including China, the US and other non-Asean interlocutors – to ease tensions. “Everyone in this room has the same responsibility to not create new conflict, to not create new tension, to not create new wars,” he said. “At the same time, we have the responsibility to lower heated tensions, to thaw frozen state of affairs, to create room for dialogue, to bridge existing differences.”

The fact that US-China meetings are even taking place at this level has led some to declare progress in bilateral relations. But this is to cling to straws in the political whirlpool threatening to swallow the region. Indeed, recent developments – including tit-for-tat naval shows of force by China and the US – seem to indicate the opposite of progress, or at least a dangerously leaking status quo.

From the left, South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, Chinese Premier Li Qiang, US Vice-President Kamala Harris and Indonesian President Joko Widodo arrive for the East Asia Summit in Jakarta on September 7. Photo: AFP

Worse, China has doubled down, with its coastguard becoming more aggressive in disputed areas in the South China Sea. In early August, the Chinese coastguard used a water cannon to prevent the Philippines from sending supplies to its troops in the contested Second Thomas Shoal. China controversially claims the shoal as its own, based on historical records, and has repeatedly warned the Philippines to stay away.

The Chinese coastguard’s action was particularly dangerous because the Philippines’ military ally, the United States, has vowed to defend Philippine troops and public vessels if they are attacked in the South China Sea.

Early this month, a US surveillance plane monitored another of the Philippines’ resupply missions to the disputed shoal, as Chinese coastguard and maritime militia ships surrounded Philippine vessels.

The plane declared over the radio: “This is a US Navy aircraft in the vicinity of Second Thomas Shoal observing all activities between Filipino and PRC coastguard vessels to include … any unsafe or unprofessional actions.” However, this did not deter aggressive action by the Chinese vessels.

What must be worrying to China is that the Philippines agreed, earlier this year, to give the US military access to four more of its bases, a move that seems to be part of the US’ containment strategy. Furthermore, the US and the Philippines are launching joint patrols in the South China Sea and other nations, such as Japan and Australia, are considering joining them.

Stop pushing the lie that Beijing is on the brink of war with Taiwan

Meanwhile, Beijing stepped up military exercises around Taiwan in August, in response to Taiwanese Vice-President William Lai Ching-te’s US stopovers. That same month, the US approved a weapons sale to Taiwan despite strenuous objections from Beijing.

These developments come against a backdrop of continued US intelligence probes in China’s near waters as well as its freedom of navigation operations challenging China’s claims in the sea.

US Secretary of Defence Lloyd Austin admitted as much in June, when he told the Shangri-La Dialogue that the US and its allies would not be deterred by China’s “alarming number of risky intercepts of US and allied aircraft flying lawfully in international airspace”. In an indication of the degree of its displeasure, China then rebuffed the US’ attempt to restart communication between their militaries.

03:06

Beijing faces backlash from neighbours over expanded territorial claims in new official map

Before the most recent high-level meetings could start in Jakarta, Beijing cast a shadow by publishing a new map showing a “10-dash line” that encompasses not just most of the South China Sea but also Taiwan. Although maps are discounted as evidence in most arbitrations on territorial claims, the timing and audacity of the action riled rival claimants, and the map also drew protests from the US and some allies.

Thus, it should have been no surprise when the meetings made little progress; Asean is still a long way from agreeing a robust, legally binding South China Sea code of conduct.

In the past week, a new row has erupted over a floating barrier placed by China at Scarborough Shoal, which the Philippines promptly removed. Manila said the Chinese barrier blocked fishing vessels’ access and violated international law.

When one throws into the mix the relatively unpredictable behaviour of US allies like the Philippines, confrontation between the US and China appears ever more likely. Both should tread carefully around potential hotspots such as the Second Thomas Shoal, Scarborough Shoal and Taiwan. But unless the two can agree to disagree and practise military restraint, something could go seriously wrong.

Mark J. Valencia is a non-resident senior research fellow at the Huayang Institute for Maritime Cooperation and Ocean Governance

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