Japan sends feelers to Trump: don’t strike a deal with China that could rock regional peace

Top of Tokyo’s worry list is that if Trump returns to power he may seek some kind of trade or security deal between the world’s top two economies that could undermine recent efforts by the Group of Seven (G7) wealthy nations to counter China, according to the six officials, who spoke on the condition of anonymity because of the issue’s sensitivity.

Trump, who reached a trade agreement with Beijing in 2019 that later expired, has not mentioned any potential deal with China during his campaign for the 2024 nomination.

Why Japan is reportedly reaching out to Donald Trump ahead of US election

While many nations, including the US, do not officially acknowledge Taiwan as an independent state, they oppose any use of force to alter the existing status quo.

A Trump aide said that no recent meetings have taken place between Trump and Japanese officials. They would not comment further.

Asked in an interview with Fox News in July 2023 whether the US should help defend Taiwan if it means going to war with China, Trump said: “If I answer that question, it will put me in a very bad negotiating position. With that being said, Taiwan did take all of our chip business. We used to make our own chips. Now they’re made in Taiwan.”

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Xi Jinping tells his ‘old friend’ Bill Gates he hopes US-China friendship will continue

Xi Jinping tells his ‘old friend’ Bill Gates he hopes US-China friendship will continue

In a statement, Japan’s foreign ministry said it was “watching the US presidential election with great interest”, while noting bipartisan US commitment to the US-Japan alliance.

Ado Machida, a Tokyo-based businessman who served in Trump’s transition team after his 2016 election victory, said Japanese officials were eager to connect with his former boss.

“If he is going to cut a deal with China, Japan needs to try and get ahead of the curve and understand its potential role to support its interests in both the US and in China,” said Machida.

The Chinese and Taiwanese foreign ministries both said they would work closely with the US regardless of the election outcome.

China unlikely to apply ‘economic coercion’ against Japan amid slowdown

Taro Aso, a leading figure in Japan’s ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) who was deputy prime minister during Trump’s term, travelled to the US last month to try to meet Trump, though he was not able to see him, according to three of the six officials. Aso’s office declined to comment.

Japan’s new US ambassador, Shigeo Yamada, was appointed late last year with specific instructions to connect with the Trump campaign, according to two of the officials. Japan’s embassy in Washington, on behalf of the ambassador, declined to comment on matters related to the US election.

Complicating matters for Tokyo is that many of Trump’s former cabinet members that were focused on Japan – such as Mike Pence, James Mattis and Mike Pompeo – are no longer seen as close to him, said Michael Green, a former US official who heads the US Studies Centre at the University of Sydney.

Senator Bill Hagerty, Trump’s former envoy to Japan who some analysts say could play a prominent role in a second Trump administration, met with several Japanese officials during a visit to Tokyo at the turn of the year.

He also sat alongside Aso and Yamada at an event hosted by Japan’s US embassy during Aso’s trip to the US, according to photos the embassy posted on social media.

Hagerty said that Japanese interlocutors “know Trump and know he is someone who means business” in the region, adding that Japan’s main concerns – Chinese and North Korean aggression – looked like they did in 2016.

Robert O’Brien, Trump’s former national security adviser, also has connections with Japanese officials, two of the sources said. O’Brien, whose American Global Strategies consultancy counts Japan’s former national security adviser Shigeru Kitamura among its ranks, did not respond to requests for comment.

Tokyo is particularly concerned that Trump’s return could create volatility with China. When engaging with people Japan views as close to Trump, it has been emphasising the benefits of a multilateral approach on China policy, two of the Japanese officials said, such as the G7’s agreement last year to counter economic coercion and de-risk critical supply chains.

“We don’t want risky seas for misunderstanding,” said Tsuneo Watanabe, a senior fellow with Tokyo-based policy research organisation Sasakawa Peace Foundation, who said he was aware of Japan’s attempts to reach out to Trump.

One challenge for Japan is determining who will try to placate Trump if he returns to office.

Officials and analysts say Kishida, whose ratings have plunged over several party scandals, may not be in charge when the November 5 US presidential election comes around. The LDP must hold a leadership vote by the end of September.

“Clearly Trump is one factor” in the LDP’s choice of leader, said Watanabe, adding that the party will ideally look for a candidate who can speak English, build rapport with Trump and play golf.

“A good golfer is bad. Just needs to be a nice golfer so as not to beat Trump,” he said.