Both sides will bring wish list to expected Vladimir Putin-Xi Jinping meeting next week

Though Russian President Vladimir Putin is rumoured to be the “special guest” next week at the 10th anniversary celebration of Chinese leader Xi Jinping’s multibillion-dollar Belt and Road Initiative, experts say the two “no-limits” partners will have a great deal more to discuss.

According to Elizabeth Wishnick of the Virginia-based Centre for Naval Analyses, a federally funded research group, while Putin will seek additional support from Beijing – “at least in messaging” – on Ukraine, “Xi Jinping would also like some things from him.”

“Probably some answers about the coup attempt by the Wagner Group, and what happened with Kim Jong-un when the North Korean leader visited President Putin in Vladivostok last month,” she said on Friday.

Wishnick spoke just hours before US President Joe Biden’s administration confirmed that North Korea had transferred military equipment to Moscow for use in Ukraine.

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North Korean leader Kim to travel abroad for meeting with Russian leader Putin in September: report

North Korean leader Kim to travel abroad for meeting with Russian leader Putin in September: report

“Our information indicates that in recent weeks, North Korea has provided Russia with more than 1,000 containers of military equipment and munitions,” said White House National Security Council spokesman John Kirby.

He said the US believed that in return Pyongyang was seeking military assistance from Russia that included fighter aircraft, surface-to air missiles, armoured vehicles and ballistic missile production equipment to bolster its military and nuclear programme.

Without naming Beijing, Kirby threatened to impose new sanctions against those who enable such arms deals.

In February, US intelligence suggested that China was considering providing weapons and ammunition to Russia. US Secretary of State Antony Blinken warned Beijing against the move and warned that it would be a “serious problem”. In April, senior Biden officials said they had not seen evidence that China was providing material support to Moscow.

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Since its invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, the Kremlin has received rhetorical, political and diplomatic support from Beijing. But experts say that Russian troops’ dismal performance in the war had “injected a lot of instability in the relationship”.

But that instability has not been expressed by China, “at least publicly”, said Lyle Morris of the Asia Society Policy Institute’s Centre for China Analysis.

“I think China is worried about Russian collapse,” he said, adding that China was “cozying up Russia” more because of a “lack of policy alternative” than a “diabolical strategy” to take down the Western-led rules-based order.

Morris described the Putin-Kim meeting as “symbolism” and said China was not “worried too much about it”.

“I think it speaks to just how bad things are getting for Putin’s regime to basically be solidifying an alliance that, from Russia’s perspective, North Korea doesn’t have much to offer. China has much more to offer Russia in that regard,” he said.

Wishnick said that although Beijing tried to protect itself from sanctions by not directly supplying military aid to Moscow, there are dual-use technologies that can be used by the Russian military.

“By some estimates, almost 70 per cent of that comes from China, or Chinese companies. So not state directed, necessarily, but there are a lot of different routes that Russia gets this technology,” she said.

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“You don’t see the joint planning, you don’t see the operational coordination that you would among Nato allies, for example,” she added.

Discussing other issues likely to come up during Xi-Putin meeting, she said what the Russian leader wants most would be a signed agreement on the Power of Siberia-2 gas pipeline, “but I think he’s likely to be disappointed on that one. I think Xi Jinping has many reservations about a second gas pipeline transiting Mongolia, and has been very hesitant to agree.”

Given Moscow’s stranded gas reserves owing to its broken ties with Europe, the project has taken new importance for Putin. PS-2 plans to supply China with gas from Siberia’s Yamal peninsula, which historically served the European market. But Beijing remains cautious of inviting geopilitical risks with Europe and the US.