China defence minister Dong Jun’s reappearance stirs more intrigue amid patron Miao Hua’s downfall

Analysts say it might be too soon to confirm whether Mr Dong is safe or still in trouble.

They cite how he does not wield the same power as his two predecessors who held concurrent roles as CMC members and state councilors, granting them direct access to Mr Xi and Premier Li Qiang respectively. Mr Dong holds neither of these titles.

Also, what remains unexplained are Mr Dong’s absence at recent official engagements usually attended by a defence minister.

Prior to his appearance on Dec 5, Mr Dong’s last public appearance was on Nov 21, when he gave a speech at a meeting of Association of Southeast Asian Nations defence ministers in Vientiane, Laos.

But he declined to meet US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin on the sidelines, citing US actions over Taiwan – a move that the Pentagon chief said was unfortunate. Mr Dong’s absence from a visit to China by Singapore’s Chief of Defence Force Aaron Beng days later also sparked speculation.

While Mr Dong’s reappearance may prove that he is safe for now, observers say it depends also on his role in the investigation surrounding Mr Miao.

Former investigative journalist-turned-commentator Cai Shenkun asserted in a Nov 11 post on social media platform X that “since Admiral Dong Jun was promoted by Miao”, he will be “affected”.

Dr Willy Lam, senior fellow at The Jamestown Foundation, cited talk that Mr Dong may have dodged disgrace because he “spilled the beans on Miao Hua” as a witness. 

“It is likely that Dong Jun would carry on for a few months just for the sake of appearances,” Dr Lam told CNA. “The fact that Dong Jun reappeared, this has added an intriguing element to the story.”

“For now, it seems his political future remains secure,” said Mr Chen Shih-min, associate professor in the Department of Political Science at National Taiwan University, who signalled that his safety could possibly solidify, if he fills the vacuum in the CMC, as a member.

MIAO HUA: PAWN IN POWER STRUGGLE?

Even though Mr Miao is confirmed to be in trouble, his public removal in itself has raised eyebrows among observers, who cited how the language used around his case differed from the usual practice. 

Defence ministry spokesman Wu Qian told a press briefing on Nov 28 that the CCP “has decided to suspend Miao Hua from duty pending investigation”, without giving further details about the charges against him.

Some analysts pointed out how in announcing Mr Miao’s suspension, the Chinese term jiancha (“inspection”) was used instead of diaocha (“investigation”).

“If they use the formal term diaocha, it means more likely than not, according to the Chinese legal system, that he is already found guilty.” Jiancha, however, is a “lighter term,” implying that Mr Miao “might not necessarily be given a long, severe jail term,” said Dr Lam.

National Taiwan University’s Mr Chen added: “Of course, it can also be interpreted as a relatively lenient treatment of Miao Hua, and the reason for this could certainly be explained by the fact that Miao Hua is ‘one of Xi Jinping’s truly close allies.’”

But lightening the terminology might not change the fate for Mr Miao, said Mr Morris, pointing out that the announcement in English said it was over a suspected “serious violation of discipline”.

“For China to come out publicly to announce that Miao Hua is suspended from duty is a strong enough indication that his career is over and will be under house arrest or worse,” he added.

Opinions are also divided over whether Mr Miao’s suspension is the work of Mr Xi or that of opposing factions against the president.