ASTANA—Kazakhstan’s President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev has approved the country’s budget for 2025-2027 on Dec. 4. The law entails budget expenditures of 25.19 trillion tenge (US$48.2 billion), an increase of nearly 7% compared to 2024 plans.
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Revenue and expenditure outlook
According to the new law, the 2025 budget projects revenues at 21.39 trillion tenge ($40.95 billion), primarily driven by tax receipts of 15.19 trillion tenge ($29.1 billion) and transfers of 5.76 trillion tenge ($11 billion).
The law states that a budget deficit would amount to 4.1 trillion tenge ($7.8 billion), or 2.7% of GDP. Without oil revenues, this deficit would grow to 10.99 trillion tenge ($21 billion), or 7.3% of GDP. Experts are concerned about the rising non-oil deficit and its potential risks.
At a Nov. 21 session, the Senate, an upper house of the Kazakh Parliament, reviewed the draft law and suggested increasing expenditures on regional development before sending it back to the Mazhilis, a lower chamber.
“The Senate introduced 135 amendments to the law, (…) amounting to 118.8 billion tenge ($227.4 million). This includes 60 billion tenge ($114.9 million) for 2025, 38.5 billion tenge ($73.7 million) for 2026, and 20.3 billion tenge ($38.9 million) for 2027,” said Mazhilis deputy Erkin Abil.
According to him, these funds are aimed at supporting the regions, including implementing the Auyl – El Besigi program, a rural infrastructure development initiative. The money will also target the development of transport infrastructure, water supply and sewage systems, and the expansion of the gas transportation network, among other priorities.
Social commitments
As in previous years, nearly 40% of budget spending is earmarked for the social sector.
“The budget remains socially oriented, with 9.8 trillion tenge ($18.8 billion) allocated to this sector in 2025, marking an increase of 871 billion tenge ($1.7 billion) compared to the current year. Social spending will account for 38% of total expenditures in 2025,” said Kazakh Finance Minister Madi Takiyev.
“More specifically, six trillion tenge ($11.5 billion) is earmarked for social security and assistance to citizens, including the indexation of social payments and an expanded pool of beneficiaries,” he added.
The law also entails measures, including raising the minimum wage to 85,000 tenge ($162.7) alongside an 8.5% pension increase starting January next year.
The law also envisions pay increases for medical workers in internal affairs bodies, environmental and social service institutions, and educators in preschool, secondary, and vocational education. Specialized categories of civil servants and state-funded employees will also see increases.
The budget allocates funds for veterinary safety, labor mobility centers, and improved services for people with disabilities.
Where does other budget money go?
According to the finance ministry, in 2025, spending on education will exceed one trillion tenge ($1.9 billion). Healthcare expenditures for 2025-2027 are projected at 7.6 trillion tenge ($14.5 billion), with 2.5 trillion tenge ($4.8 billion) allocated for 2025, reflecting a 188 billion tenge ($359.9 million) increase compared to the current year.
The budget also sets aside 141 billion tenge ($269.9 million) for tourism and sports development and 165 billion tenge ($315.9 million) for culture and information in 2025.
Spending on defense and law enforcement will total 2.7 trillion tenge ($5.2 billion) in 2025.
“A comprehensive set of amendments was adopted in the Senate, providing additional funds for many key sectors. A significant portion is allocated for the social sphere, equitable regional development, and business promotion. In 2025, 2.1 trillion tenge ($4 billion) will be directed to support the real economy, with 635 billion tenge ($1.2 billion) allocated to the agro-industrial complex, representing a 30% increase compared to the current year,” said Madi Takiyev at a Nov. 21 Senate session.
Transfers from the National Fund
In 2025, the government plans to draw on transfers from the National Fund, a sovereign wealth fund established in 2000 to accumulate savings from the country’s oil and gas revenues and serve as a buffer in times of economic crises.
In 2025, the government plans to withdraw 5.25 trillion tenge ($10.1 billion), including two trillion tenge ($3.8 billion) in guaranteed transfers and 3.25 trillion tenge ($6.2 billion) in targeted allocations for what the law describes as the “goals outlined by the President of Kazakhstan.” The guaranteed transfers are two trillion tenge ($3.8 billion) for 2026 and 2027.
While these funds help bridge budget deficits, the increasing reliance on the fund raises concerns among experts.
“There are guaranteed and targeted transfers, and now the National Fund is also being used to purchase national companies. This practice needs to be reduced. However, we find ourselves in a difficult situation because a large portion of state expenditures, especially social spending, is growing while development budgets are shrinking,” said Rasul Rysmambetov, a Kazakh economic and financial expert.
In July, the National Fund, managed by the National Bank of Kazakhstan, acquired a 12% stake in Kazatomprom, the nation’s leading uranium producer, from Samruk Kazyna Sovereign Wealth Fund. This transaction, valued at approximately 467.4 billion tenge ($894.8 million), aimed to bolster the budget.
This approach mirrors a prior transaction in 2023, where the National Fund acquired shares of KazMunayGas, the national oil and gas company, to support the national budget. The purchase was valued at 1.3 trillion tenge ($2.5 billion).
As of Dec. 1, the assets in the National Fund were 29.9 trillion tenge ($57.2 billion), as indicated in a report on receipts and use of the National Fund published by the Ministry of Finance. Over the 11 months this year, the National Fund received 8.7 trillion tenge ($16.7 billion), including 3.6 trillion tenge ($6.9 billion) in tax revenues from the oil sector.
In 11 months, transfers from the fund were 5.3 trillion tenge ($10.1 billion).
Revised budget parameters for 2024
On Dec. 5, the Senate endorsed the revision of the budget plans for 2024-2026 and sent the relevant law to the President for signature.
The revised budget for this year anticipates revenues of 20.19 trillion tenge ($38.7 billion), with the bulk coming from tax revenues amounting to 12.67 trillion tenge ($24.3 billion).
“The revenues of the budget have been reduced by two trillion tenge ($3.8 billion) due to a 3.1 trillion tenge ($5.9 billion) decrease in tax revenues, partially offset by a 1.1 trillion tenge ($2.1 billion) increase in non-tax revenues,” said minister Takiev at a Dec. 5 Senate session.
He also said the targeted transfer from the National Fund was increased by two trillion tenge ($3.8 billion) to sustain regional growth amid risks of slower economic growth.
“While the economic growth rate was projected at 5.3% in the socio-economic development forecast, actual growth this year has been 4.1%. The additional transfer also aims to finance urgent expenditures of the republican budget this year,” he said.
The minister outlined the reasons behind the reduction in budget revenues. Key factors include oil production delays due to the postponement of the Tengizchevroil (TCO) project, falling imports, and volatility in global prices of major export commodities.
Need for careful budget planning
While external pressures such as volatile commodity prices, geopolitical uncertainty, and slowing global growth strain the country’s economy, these same factors underscore the importance of prudent fiscal planning to navigate near-term challenges while securing long-term economic resilience.
Experts call for more careful budget planning. They argue that such adjustments point to fundamental weaknesses in forecasting and execution, which, if unaddressed, could undermine the country’s ambitious economic trajectory.
