Indonesia’s Prabowo, Widodo step up consolidating power as ‘unity is the key’

“Unity is the key to a nation’s success,” Prabowo said after meeting Paloh.

Prabowo has also been courting the National Awakening Party (PKB), Indonesia’s largest Islamic party with a 10 per cent parliamentary share.

The PKB had supported the presidential bid of Prabowo’s rival Anies Baswedan.

“You can see Prabowo’s preferred model is to have a coalition that includes everybody, so that there is no opposition,” said Ian Wilson, a senior fellow at Murdoch University’s Indo-Pacific Research Centre in Perth.

Prabowo’s expected parliamentary majority and cabinet filled with loyalists would allow him to quickly implement his legislative agenda once he’s in office, analysts say, but this concentration of power risks undermining the country’s democratic checks and balances.

Without any major opposition, governing would become a “matter of the president managing relations within that grouping of different parties to maintain stability by distributing favours and all that”, Murdoch University’s Wilson said.

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Jakarta governorship

In Indonesia’s coming regional elections, Anies is seeking to return to the Jakarta governorship, a position he held from 2017 to 2022.

Opinion polls show Anies as a clear front runner for the role, but on Monday it seemed his campaign would be derailed when 10 of the 11 parties in the regional legislature threw their support behind former West Java governor Ridwan Kamil backed by Prabowo’s KIM coalition.

Given the nomination threshold of support from a party with over 22 seats, which Anies was unable to obtain, he was effectively removed from the race, with Ridwan and independent candidate Dharma Pongrekun as contenders.

However, reflecting the unpredictable nature of Indonesian politics, the country’s top court unexpectedly ruled on Tuesday to lower the nomination threshold, tying it to prior legislative election results in the region – a move that could revive Anies’ prospects.

Despite the court’s decision, analysts say it is unclear whether Anies will be able to run if the ruling is thwarted by the House of Representatives.

On Wednesday, Anies responded to the decision by tweeting: “Indonesian democracy is once again at a crucial crossroads. Its fate is determined these days by the people’s representatives in the House of Representatives, each of whom holds the votes of hundreds of thousands of Indonesians. The party leaders also bear the same opportunity and responsibility at this time.”

“We convey our strong hopes to all of them to think clearly and be determined to return the Indonesian constitution and democracy on the right track, in accordance with the ideals of reform,” he added.

If it is upheld, the court’s ruling could undermine what was shaping up to be a key strategy of Prabowo’s incoming administration, Wilson said.

“We had speculated that there would be an approach by Prabowo to try and create a mass coalition that would essentially determine the outcomes of elections, and this was a pretty extreme case right off the mark,” he said.

The Jakarta governorship has historically been a stepping stone to higher office. Widodo held the position from 2012 to 2014 before he became president.

Anies would get a significant boost in the 2029 presidential election if he secured the Jakarta governorship, a prospect that Prabowo’s camp might be wary of, political analyst Yoes Kenawas from Jakarta’s Atma Jaya Catholic University said.

“If Anies can secure Jakarta governorship, it will help him maintain his political capital and his exposure to the Indonesian public if he wants to run in the 2029 election,” Yoes said.

“That is why there was this whole effort to try and keep him from entering the race.”

Golkar situation

While Prabowo’s election victory is largely seen to be a result of tacit support from incumbent Widodo – known popularly as Jokowi – analysts say there is also risk of a power struggle between the two.

Widodo has maintained significant popularity after a decade in power, and he steps down after completing his constitutionally mandated two terms in office, there is a question of where he will go next.

For months, many analysts pointed to a top position in Golkar, the country’s second largest party, as Widodo’s next move.

This speculation intensified after Golkar chairman Airlangga Hartarto abruptly resigned last week – a move observers suggest may have been influenced by external powers and even by Widodo.

Golkar, also part of Prabowo’s KIM coalition, on Wednesday chose a close aide of Widodo – former investment minister Bahlil Lahadalia – as its new chair. During his speech to Congress, Bahlil stressed the party must be unified and in an apparent reference to Jokowi, he gave a veiled warning to its members to stay in line.

During a cabinet reshuffle on Monday, Widodo also appointed Bahlil as the country’s new energy and mineral resources minister.

Rumours have swirled about Airlangga’s sudden resignation, which analysts say was particularly shocking since he had brought significant momentum to Golkar in this year’s legislative elections.

“There’s no reason or urgency for him to have resigned. I believe he was pressured by external factors, most likely from the [state] palace, from Jokowi’s administration,” Yoes said.

“This opens the possibility that Jokowi could play a significant role in Golkar’s power structure once he steps down from presidency,” he said, noting that it is now a priority for the outgoing leader to find a strong position in a political party for the next five years.

Prabowo’s camp likely harbours concerns about Widodo’s ability to wield influence through a top Golkar position, though the dynamics will depend on their relationship once Widodo steps down, Wilson says.

“Prabowo may be wary of Jokowi consolidating too much power in the broader coalition,” he said. “Through the cabinet reshuffles and the leadership change happening in Golkar, it’s clear that Jokowi is making the most of his last days in power to secure his interests.”

Additional reporting by Reuters