Editor’s note: Russian military-political analyst, expert in the field of strategic security, specialist in the Middle East and Africa Vladimir Bekish. The article expresses the personal opinion of the author and may not coincide with the view of News.Az.
The U.S. Armed Forces have left Niger and Air Base 201. They withdrew because this was demanded by the Niger government—or more precisely, by the military junta that seized power last July.
Air Base 201, which the Pentagon spent $110 million to build, was the center for U.S. Air Force operations and a command center for drone management. Both the aviation and drones were used by the Americans to combat Islamic terrorists in Niger and neighboring countries in the Sahel region.
Almost all 1,000 American servicemen have been withdrawn from the country, and the base has been handed over to Niger’s military.
It is worth noting that, despite the military junta’s strong demand for the Americans to leave, the withdrawal was the result of calm negotiations. While the Americans had little choice in the decision to leave, the constructive nature of these agreements should be highlighted. The terms and conditions of the withdrawal were mutually agreed upon and generally adhered to.
Now the question arises: what happens next? And this question isn’t only about Niger. To find answers, let’s look at the situation in other African countries.
Mali. The country underwent a military coup, with a junta seizing power. The junta immediately reached out to Russia, welcoming its private military companies (PMCs), and demanded that France, the disliked colonizer, withdraw entirely—from business to military presence—and similarly pointed to the Americans. Independence and sovereignty were the rallying cries. Russia and Iran have become Mali’s main partners, with Russian companies active in the mining sector.
Burkina Faso. Another country with a military coup, where the junta demanded the departure of France and the U.S. The subsequent step was embracing Russian military aid, including weapons and instructors.
Central African Republic (CAR). Following a coup, the junta proclaimed pride in their sovereignty, ousted Western countries, and welcomed Russian PMCs, along with military advisors and instructors. Russian traditions and values are visibly taking root.
Sudan. In the last three years, two military juntas have toppled each other, each time expressing readiness to cooperate with Russian military advisors and a fondness for Russian weaponry in exchange for a Russian Navy base in Port Sudan on the Red Sea.
Chad. There was a recent attempt at a military coup, which was not very successful, but the government demanded the withdrawal of American troops and the closure of the U.S. Air Force base. Shortly after these demands, Russian military instructors arrived in the country.
Returning to Niger, it’s essential to note a few more circumstances. A few weeks ago, the ruling junta issued an ultimatum to the French company ORANO: resume full-scale uranium mining or lose the license and be expelled from Niger. ORANO manages the Imouraren mine, one of the world’s largest, with 200,000 tons of extractable uranium reserves, but had suspended operations due to a downturn in the global uranium market. While ORANO claims to have resumed work, the junta is dissatisfied with the scale. Meanwhile, some Russian companies have already expressed specific interest in uranium mining in Niger, awaiting permission.
Niger is likely to follow the path of other African countries where military juntas took power, rejected colonialism, and opted for cooperation with Russia. However, the outcome may be similar to the past: financial aid and military equipment from Russia in exchange for natural resources, without long-term benefits. Russia might face issues with non-return of investments and resource sharing. It could all end as before: “Goodbye, Russia!”
(If you possess specialized knowledge and wish to contribute, please reach out to us at opinions@news.az).
