Prabowo’s meeting with Putin underscores Indonesia’s ‘friend to all’ foreign policy

The leaders were reported to have discussed plans for Indonesia and Russia to strengthen their strategic partnership and cooperation in defence, energy and education.

According to Russian state news agency TASS, Putin said trade between Indonesia and Russia had doubled in recent years despite the West’s sanctions against Moscow over its invasion of Ukraine.

Putin also announced that a free-trade agreement between Indonesia and the Russian-led Eurasian Economic Union was almost completed. Apart from Indonesia and Russia, the economic bloc includes Armenia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, and Kyrgyzstan.

Figures from Jakarta show Indonesia’s bilateral trade with Russia grew from US$2.7 billion in 2021 to US$3.6 billion in 2022 before falling to US$3.3 billion in 2023.

“Indonesia, with a population of almost 300 million, is in Russia’s interest,” Putin said. “We will increase agricultural exports and implement our energy, transport and infrastructure projects in your country.”

According to Ahmad Rizky Umar, a lecturer at the School of Political Science and International Studies at Australia’s University of Queensland, Prabowo’s meeting with Putin shows he is laying the groundwork for his “good neighbour policy” by showing he is neutral and wants to cooperate with as many countries as possible.

“Given that Indonesia has advanced its strategic partnership with the United States and Australia, and given Indonesia’s independent and active foreign policy doctrine, it’s logical to have advancement on bilateral relations with Russia as well,” Umar said.

Balancing act

Since winning Indonesia’s general election in February by a landslide, Prabowo has undertaken several international trips, starting with an Asia tour in April with stops in China, Japan, and Malaysia.

“Prabowo wants to be seen as a global leader, these trips are part of that ambition,” said Yohanes Sulaiman, associate professor of international relations at Jenderal Achmad Yani University in West Java.

Analysts note that while Prabowo has met with Western leaders, as seen in his recent Europe trip, he also wants to show Indonesia is maintaining strong ties with China and Russia.

This “balancing act” indicates Prabowo will largely follow Indonesia’s long-standing non-aligned foreign policy approach, which Widodo has adhered to during his time in office.

While the meeting with Putin might have “raised some eyeballs in the West”, Yohanes said the US and its allies were aware that they could not control Indonesia’s foreign policy.

“This is similar to India, where Washington is willing to turn a blind eye on India’s relations with Russia,” because Western nations wanted to maintain good relations with India and Indonesia as they were viewed as important regional leaders and strategic partners, Yohanes said.

Ultimately, Indonesia is aware it needs to be careful in its engagement with the West and Russia, analysts say.

This is why Indonesia – which counts China as its largest trading partner – has so far refrained from joining the Brics – Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa – economic bloc, which the West sees as a geopolitical vehicle for Beijing and Moscow to expand their influence, according to Yohanes.

Instead, Indonesia is trying to maintain its balanced approach by seeking to join the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development, a group comprising the US, Japan and 36 other member countries, which typically supports free markets and democracy, analysts say.

More active foreign policy

Prabowo would likely take a more active role in international interactions compared with Widodo, said Dedi Dinarto, a lead Indonesia analyst at Global Counsel.

“While it is too early to definitively judge Prabowo’s foreign policy, these visits suggest he may transform Indonesia from an inward-looking nation under Jokowi’s leadership to a proactive middle power shaping international politics whenever practicable,” he said, referring to Widodo by his popular nickname.

Umar concurred, saying that Prabowo has a different leadership style compared with Widodo, who typically assigned Foreign Minister Retno Marsudi to handle international engagements.

“He may be more interested in engaging foreign leaders himself … I can see him spending more time abroad than Jokowi,” said Umar, noting the approach would allow Prabowo to showcase his “friend to all” foreign policy stance.

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Indonesian athletes race for rare speed-climbing gold in Paris Olympics

Indonesian athletes race for rare speed-climbing gold in Paris Olympics

However, such a leadership style could result in competing interests especially if Prabowo were to assign a career diplomat to oversee the Indonesian foreign ministry, Umar said.

This was on display last year when Prabowo proposed a controversial peace plan for the war in Ukraine, which included a ceasefire and a demilitarised zone, while he was addressing the Shangri-La Dialogue security summit in Singapore, Umar added.

“Prabowo tends to be more personalistic and he is quite unpredictable.”

Defence modernisation

Indonesia might also shift more focus to defence under Prabowo, who has stepped up efforts during his time as defence minister to modernise Indonesia’s military capabilities.

During Prawbowo’s Europe trip that began in France, he met with President Emmanuel Macron to discuss stronger bilateral military cooperation. In January, Indonesia ordered 42 French Rafale fighter jets, with the first delivery expected in early 2026.

In Serbia, Prabowo discussed defence and economic partnerships with President Aleksandar Vucic. During his stop in Turkey, Prabowo also focused on defence cooperation, which followed Indonesia’s purchase of 12 surveillance and reconnaissance drones from Turkish Aerospace for US$300 million last year.

Prabowo’s efforts to meet leaders with different political leanings in Europe and Asia have provided an insight into his foreign policy outlook, which was set to align with Indonesia’s “foundational principles of being free and active”, Dedi said.

“Adhering to this principle is beneficial for Indonesia, as it allows flexibility to work with any country that offers political and economic advantages. However, this requires walking the tightrope between competing global powers.”