Indonesia election 2024: Anies, Ganjar attack Prabowo over defence, China policies in third presidential debate

“Frankly, my impression of all three’s performances were a bit disappointing. Anies seems to have a stronger strategic vision, while Ganjar has some good ideas but not much strategic policy framing. Prabowo is too defensive about the policies he has implemented so far, and that makes his answers not satisfactory enough,” said Ahmad Rizky Umar, lecturer at the School of Political Science and International Studies at Australia’s University of Queensland.

Just four minutes into the debate, Anies took aim at the defence ministry’s decision “to buy used defence equipment” with its budget of 700 trillion rupiah (US$45 billion). He also criticised Prabowo’s purported wealth.

“While half of our soldiers do not have official residences, its minister owns 340,000 hectares of land,” said Anies, who also noted the defence ministry had been hacked last year.

In November, a hacker claimed to have stolen 1.64 terabytes of sensitive files from the defence ministry’s website.

Prabowo denied Anies’ claim that he owned that much land, before setting out his vision for Indonesia’s defence if he were elected president, which included strengthened military power and the continuation of Indonesia’s free and active foreign policies.

Free and active tenets mean that Indonesia is free to befriend and make deals with any countries, while playing an active role in the international community, particularly to maintain peace.

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“History teaches us that without military power, a nation can be trampled, like Gaza, whose resources were taken,” said Prabowo, in a claim that incited backlash online.

“Prabowo’s logic regarding Gaza is dangerous. If Gaza is blamed for colonialism, then should women be blamed for rape?” asked user Ilham Ibrahim on X, formerly known as Twitter.

Ganjar also pounced over Prabowo’s now-cancelled deal to buy the Mirage fighter jets, as well as the defence ministry’s inability to realise its plan to modernise the military’s equipment by next year.

Indonesia’s defence budget should account for at least 2 per cent of the GDP, but so far it only accounts for 0.7 per cent, Ganjar said.

“Your planning is too reckless and you are not serious in managing the domestic defence industry. I am doubtful of [the way] you manage the defence budget in Indonesia,” Ganjar said to Prabowo, before rating his ministry’s performance a five out 10.

The China question

Asked by the panellists how the three presidential candidates would prevent foreign debts from being used by other countries to subvert Indonesia’s sovereignty, Prabowo said he was “not worried”.

“It turns out that currently our foreign debt, as a ratio to GDP, is one of the lowest in the world, at around 40 per cent. With prudent and good management, and the right economic strategy, especially through downstreaming, we can now strengthen our bargaining position,” the 72 year-old said.

“I’m not too worried about other countries wanting to intervene with us. We are highly respected, we never default [on our debt]. We must have a strong defence force so that we cannot be intervened.”

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Indonesia’s foreign debt in the third quarter of 2023 was recorded at US$393.7 billion, or 28.9 per cent of it GDP, according to data from the central bank.

That didn’t stop Ganjar from warning about relying on foreign debt to fuel development.

“Debt can be deadly. Be careful if we take on debt, especially [to fund] infrastructure projects that have high risks. We need to be prudent. Foreign debts have caused many countries to collapse,” he said, without naming any country.

Analyst Ahmad Rizky from the University of Queensland said the question about foreign debt was a thinly veiled reference to China.

“[It] highlights how our defence modernisation policy and ambitious development are actually dependent on foreign debt and not national fiscal capacity,” he said.

“These three candidates are not brave enough to talk about China, even though it’s important. This is an elephant in the room, because all of Jokowi’s policies really depend so far on China’s capital expansion,” he said, referring to Widodo’s popular nickname.

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The US-China rivalry

The Sunday night debate also queried candidates on their policies regarding the South China Sea, particularly amid increased US-China tensions and the slow progress on a multilateral Code of Conduct agreement to maintain peace in the disputed waterway.

Ganjar said: “As Indonesia is not a claimant in the South China Sea, we must pursue a temporary agreement so that we can prevent [further conflict]. Equipment modernisation in China will be completed by 2027; by then it will be strong [about enforcing] its one-China policy … then there will be other conflicts that we can be affected by.”

Anies criticised Ganjar’s answer, saying that “Asean is the key” to handling regional conflict.

“Indonesia must be the dominant Asean leader. The Asean countries that are the entry point for China’s power in the South China Sea, whether it is Laos or Myanmar, will be part of the Asean agreement in the South China Sea. We must confront [the potential conflict] as one regional power,” Anies said.

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In their closing remarks, Prabowo said that, if elected in the February 14 presidential election, he would commit to Indonesia’s free and active foreign policy, as well as “putting a not so far but not so close distance with all powers”.

Ganjar said he would bring the defence budget up to 2 per cent of GDP, appoint an ambassador to promote cybersecurity and the digital economy, as well as boost maritime defences, while Anies said he would provide security to everyone, increase Indonesia’s involvement in international matters and stop the colonisation of Palestinians.

“Prabowo underperforms, Ganjar doesn’t make that much of an impact, unfortunately, and Anies is a clear winner,” Yohanes Sulaiman, a politics and security analyst with Ahmad Yani University in West Java, said on X.