India anxious for status quo in Bangladesh elections as China holds ‘advantageous position’ regardless of outcome

The ruling Awami League, led by Hasina, has been in power since 2009 and fending off increasing accusations of alleged rigged elections and the country backsliding into authoritarian rule.

‘Do or die’: strikes, clashes roil Bangladesh as opposition vows poll boycott

General elections for the 300-member assembly in the country of 170 million people will take place on January 7. The main challenger, Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP), led by former Prime Minister Khaleda Zia, has announced it is boycotting the polls.

BNP demands that the elections should be held under a caretaker government and not while the Hasina administration is in power. BNP boycotted the elections in 2014 but contested in 2018.

“The elections are crucial for Bangladesh because the country is experiencing a period of acute political polarisation and stress. Years of tensions between the ruling party and the opposition are coming to a head, and the outcome of the election will shape Bangladesh’s political trajectory for years to come,” said Michael Kugelman, Director of the South Asia Institute at the Washington-headquartered Wilson Center.

To mark International Human Rights Day on December 10, hundreds of BNP members held nationwide protests, sparking violence in some parts. On the same day, BNP officials and relatives said five party members had died in prison in the past two weeks.

Shortly after the riots and arrests, the army said the Election Commission wanted its soldiers to be deployed ahead of the polls. Beginning on December 29, the armed forces will be deployed for 13 days across the country.

A detailed questionnaire sent by This Week In Asia to the Awami League remains unanswered.

India and the neighbourhood

India and Bangladesh have developed deep political, economic and cultural ties over the past five decades. As such, any major shift in Bangladesh’s political dynamics would have an immediate impact on India.

Bangladesh garment worker protests make clear price of fast fashion

“There’s a lot at stake for New Delhi because it views the main opposition actors – essentially the Bangladesh Nationalist Party and Jamaat-e-Islami – as dangerous Islamist forces that could be destabilising if they take power, with problematic implications for India’s interests. In effect, India would much rather see the Awami League stay in power,” said Kugelman.

India also relies on Bangladesh to an extent to help bolster security at its border regions. Insurgents from Indian northeastern states often take shelter in Bangladesh via porous border routes amid rising volatility in these regions in recent years.

“If the Hasina government does not retain power, the liberal voices will be shattered,” said Imankalyan Lahiri, head of the Department of International Relations at the Kolkata-based Jadavpur University. “Thanks to the Hasina administration, Bangladesh is the only Islamic state in the neighbourhood where the liberal voices are still sustaining,” he said.

“If the Hasina administration falls, it will be a serious problem for India. It will be problematic for democratic values and secularism in Bangladesh, and the integrity of South Asia,” Lahiri added.

Indian-Sino power play in Bangladesh

China, which has been seeking to expand beyond its toehold in Bangladesh in recent years, is another major political player throwing its weight behind the Hasina administration.

“China is arguably in a more advantageous position than India when it comes to election scenarios in Bangladesh. No matter who wins the election, it will have partners willing to work with it,” said Kugelman.

“The Awami League may welcome Chinese investment and partnership, but there’s no reason why the BNP would oppose friendship with China either. Beijing, unlike New Delhi, has no reason to believe that its interests would be undercut if the BNP returns to power,” he added.

Is India-China rivalry over Maldives set to deepen or ‘more fiction than fact’?

Others agree that while China’s role in South Asia via Bangladesh would continue to grow, it may not result in a weakening of India’s sway.

“Unless there is a significant increase in communal tensions and anti-Muslim/Bengali sentiment in India and/or a change of government in Bangladesh, Dhaka will maintain cordial relations with New Delhi,” said Chietigj Bajpaee, a senior research fellow at British think tank Chatham House’s Asia-Pacific Programme.

“Unlike other countries in South Asia that are either firmly in the China camp (Pakistan), India camp (Bhutan), or prone to swinging between China and India (Maldives, Sri Lanka), Bangladesh has shown itself adept at maintaining cordial relations with both countries,” Bajpaee said.

“As long as the Awami League remains in power, relations with India will remain strong. At the same time, China will remain a key trade, investment and an increasingly important security partner for Bangladesh.”