Indonesia election 2024: Prabowo’s VP pick of Jokowi’s son could be double-edged sword, analysts warn

Widodo, who does not belong to a party created by him, has used the PDI-P as a political vehicle during his time in power over the past decade.

But the choice of Gibran as Prabowo’s running mate may not sit well with the PDI-P, amid reports of tensions in the past few months between Widodo and Megawati Sukarnoputri, former Indonesian president and PDI-P’s chairwoman.

Analysts say the party does not want to be seen as feeble in the face of political manoeuvring by its own cadres, but it is also keenly aware that maintaining a good relationship with Widodo is important for continued political stability.

A controversial court ruling last week allowed 36-year-old Gibran, currently mayor of Surakarta city, to contest the election despite not meeting the minimum age requirement of 40 for candidates.

Alexander R. Arifianto, a senior fellow with the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies’ Indonesia programme, said the campaigning period could reveal the extent of PDI-P’s displeasure with Widodo and his son, as the party could use the ruling and Gibran’s lack of experience in politics as a weapon against Prabowo’s campaign.

“The tagline of preventing a political dynasty and preserving Indonesia’s democracy could be a very powerful slogan coming from the PDI-P, which has a long history as an opposition party during the Suharto era,” added Arifianto, referring to the 32-year authoritarian rule of Suharto in Indonesia.

The timing of the ruling, just days before candidate registration opened on Thursday and coupled with the involvement of Widodo’s brother-in-law, Chief Justice Anwar Usman, as its lead decision-maker, sparked a media frenzy across the country.

Questions have resurfaced about Widodo’s attempts to intervene in the electoral process and his ambitions to build a political dynasty to maintain his legacy after he steps down, according to Dedi Dinarto, lead Indonesia analyst at public policy advisory firm Global Counsel.

“This is a clear depiction that the president has a major influence over the selection of his son as Prabowo’s running mate,” Dinarto said.

Arifianto agreed, saying the inclusion of Gibran as Prabowo’s running mate could serve as the strongest indication that Widodo viewed Prabowo as the best option to “continue and preserve his legacy”.

Widodo, however, said on Sunday he had no intention of meddling in the affairs of political parties, stressing that Gibran was old enough to make his own decisions.

“[Picking presidential pairings] is the authority of a political party or a coalition of parties, not that of the president’s,” Jokowi said. “As a parent, our task is only to pray and give our approval [to our children].”

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Online backlash about the ruling and Gibran’s nomination might also not affect voters on the ground, according to Yoes C. Kenawas, a research fellow from Atma Jaya Catholic University.

The Indonesian Survey Institute’s poll last week after the court ruling showed the Prabowo-Gibran pairing receiving 35.9 per cent of votes, while Ganjar and Mahfud had 26.1 per cent. Anies and Muhaimin trailed behind with 19.6 per cent.

“Voters might not completely reject dynastic politics when it comes to Jokowi, especially if they are pleased with his performance as the incumbent,” Yoes said, using the president’s nickname.

Prabowo could also count on Widodo’s enduring popularity to attract voters to his camp, while hoping that the controversy surrounding the court ruling and Gibran’s candidacy would die down, said Deasy Simandjuntak, associate fellow at the ISEAS – Yusof Ishak Institute.

Prabowo and Widodo have forged closer ties since their bitter rivalry in the previous two presidential elections, with Widodo appointing Prabowo as his defence minister.

“The president still has a massive number of diehard supporters and consistently high approval ratings in polls,” Deasy said.

“He can mobilise millions of votes for the person of his choice. Voting for the president’s son would be the most logical choice for his loyal followers.”

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The legal path ahead for Prabowo is also clearer after Indonesia’s top court on Monday rejected an effort to block presidential candidates who are over 70 or implicated in human rights abuses.

Lawyers belonging to a human rights advocacy group and other petitioners had argued that the constitution required stricter limits than those written in the country’s 2017 General Election Law, which sets no maximum age.

If successful, the petition would have blocked front runner Prabowo, 72, a former special forces general and current defence minister, from competing in next February’s election.

Additional reporting by Associated Press