THE most important man at a gathering of world leaders and executives in Peru on Thursday (Nov 14) was not even in attendance.
Donald Trump was about 4,345 km away in Palm Beach, Florida, but his impending return to the White House and the policies his administration will unleash pervaded the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (Apec) CEO Summit, which brings together some of the biggest names in politics and business.
At first, speakers tiptoed around saying his name for the first few hours of the two-day conference in Lima. Once the floodgates opened, however, Trump was just about all people talked about.
Vietnam President Luong Cuong warned in a keynote address that “isolationists, protectionism and trade wars lead only to recessions, conflict and poverty”, without uttering the US president-elect’s name.
But Andres Velasco, the dean of the School of Public Policy at the London School of Economics, was not reluctant to name the US president-elect, saying his win is “not very good news” for countries in the Pacific Rim, East Asia and Latin America.
He warned that countries might soon find themselves in a position of needing to choose between the US and China.
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Then Jamie Dimon took the stage. The head of JPMorgan Chase offered Apec attendees a tip for how to assess the prospects of Trump carrying out his threat to impose widespread tariffs on American imports.
“Read his book: create options,” Dimon said, presumably referring to a strategy Trump espoused in The Art of the Deal. “I just hope it’s done wisely.”
The bank head said that if Trump follows through on his tariff threats – which on the campaign trail included promises of duties of 60 per cent or higher for China, and 10 to 20 per cent for the rest of the world – it will at least “get people to the table” for negotiations, he said, adding that the president-elect will want to avoid a negative stock market reaction.
Dimon’s comments came just minutes after Trump said – in response to a question from no one apparent – that he would not be inviting Dimon, one of the more politically vocal CEOs on Wall Street, to join his administration.
Dimon said that was fine by him.
“I haven’t had a boss in 25 years, and I’m not about ready to start,” he added.
Joe Biden, who is set to finish his four years as president when Trump takes office in January, and Chinese President Xi Jinping arrived on Thursday ahead of meetings with other leaders on Friday and a bilateral sit-down on Saturday, the third and final of Biden’s term.
Both the US and Chinese presidents will also travel next week to Rio de Janeiro for a meeting of counterparts from the world’s Group of 20 largest economies.
Absent from both summits, despite his nation’s membership, is Russian President Vladimir Putin. In addition to his tariff promises, bringing an end to the war in Ukraine after almost three years was one of Trump’s biggest pledges on the campaign trail – one that he suggested he could accomplish even before taking office.
The meetings come at an awkward moment for President Biden, a week after Trump swept to victory by winning all the so-called swing states in an outcome widely seen as a rebuke of inflation and price increases during his presidency.
White House national security adviser Jake Sullivan told reporters on Thursday that US President Biden is ready for questions about his successor, and prepared to tell some leaders that he can only speak for his own beliefs, not for those or the plans of Trump.
That has not stopped speculation from swirling around the potential impact of Trump’s campaign promises.
His threat to impose widespread tariffs risks roiling the global supply chain and upending economies across Latin America.
Trump’s stance on trade and tariffs will undoubtedly impact nations such as Brazil, Peru and Mexico, which have deep economic ties with China. He has also vowed to boost American oil and petrol production, which critics say will undermine efforts to address climate change.
But Trump is “not against trade – he thinks a lot of these things have been unfair against America, and there are examples where that’s true”, Dimon said.
“If there’s something unfair, it should be fixed. If we start making ourselves stronger at the expense of everyone else, there will be retaliation.”
Outgoing US trade representative Katherine Tai echoed some of those ideas in a Bloomberg interview. Biden’s trade negotiator said the use of targeted tariffs is necessary to guard against China deluging the US with imports such as cars, clean energy and semiconductors.
“As an economic matter, as a political matter, as a societal matter, no matter who is in charge in the United States, we cannot withstand a ‘China Shock 2.0’,” Tai said at the Apec CEO Summit.
But she cautioned against the use of blanket duties such as those proposed by Trump.
“Tariffs are part of the solution,” she noted. But “just slapping them down doesn’t make them effective”, she added, without naming Trump directly.
Velasco of the London School of Economics had a much bleaker view, one that was shared by officials privately voicing worries over the incoming US administration in hallways, conference rooms and hotel bars during the Apec event.
“I think we are moving into a more protectionist world led by the United States,” he said. “No question about it.” BLOOMBERG
