How the U.S. and Russia are preparing Armenia for a confrontation with Azerbaijan
On September 7, the Council of Europe passed a resolution backing the International Criminal Court’s (ICC) arrest warrant for Russian President Vladimir Putin. Armenia, listed as a signatory, confirmed its support, and the world took note. This wasn’t a surprise, given Armenia had ratified the Rome Statute last year, meaning it would be obligated to arrest Putin if he set foot on Armenian soil.
Despite signing the document, Armenia now claims it hasn’t ratified the Rome Statute. But on October 3, 2023 , the Armenian Parliament ratified it, and on October 14, the president signed the decree, widely reported in global media. So Armenia’s signature on the Council of Europe resolution was expected. Then, suddenly, after the list of signatories was published, Yerevan bizarrely announced it hadn’t signed anything at all. The number of signatories dropped from 43 to 42, meaning Armenia had retracted its signature—while continuing to insist it never signed in the first place. Oddly enough, Russian media echoed this narrative.
This strange back-and-forth raises doubts about the authenticity of the Armenian-Russian rift. Something just doesn’t add up. The mood swings, signature withdrawals, and ensuing confusion point to an orchestrated performance. And interestingly, the West seems to be playing along.
Recently, Armenia’s Deputy Prime Minister Mher Grigoryan met with Russia’s Deputy Prime Minister Alexey Overchuk in Yerevan . The figures discussed at the meeting would be hard to believe if the two countries were in a real conflict. Trade between Armenia and Russia is expected to hit $14-16 billion this year, a significant jump from $7.4 billion last year (which was already up 55% from 2022). Despite the supposed tension between Moscow and Yerevan, their trade has doubled. Clearly, mutual trade is thriving.
When you look at these numbers, all the political talk becomes irrelevant. The Armenian economy has been stagnant, and no significant industrial growth has occurred. It’s unrealistic to believe these record-breaking figures are coming from selling apricots and tomatoes.
In June, German media outlet DW investigated and uncovered some intriguing details. As of January 2023, the EU implemented a total ban on the direct import of Russian diamonds and jewelry under the 12th sanctions package. By March 1, this embargo also applied to Russian diamonds processed in third countries, and it came into full effect by September 1. Armenia has become a key player in bypassing these sanctions, exporting Russian diamonds and gold under the guise of Armenian products, despite the country’s lack of substantial gold production. In 2023, Armenia officially exported $1.8 billion worth of gold and $589 million in diamonds—a record for its economy.
The “miracle” continues into 2024. Armenia has already exported $2.5 billion in gold and nearly $200 million in diamonds. Yet, there’s been no mining boom or increase in the country’s industrial capacity. Somehow, Armenia’s precious materials processing industry has magically grown by 31%.
Economists, of course, don’t believe in miracles. According to experts, Armenia is re-exporting Russian gold and diamonds to Dubai and Hong Kong. Both the UAE and China have reported an abnormal increase in imports from Armenia since last year. Armenian economist Aghasi Tavadyan told DW that in 2022, a large portion of money flowing out of Russia ended up in Armenia . These funds are now being used to facilitate trade between Russia and the UAE, particularly in diamonds and gold.
But Armenia’s role as a middleman doesn’t stop with Russian products. It’s also helping to re-export European goods to Russia. According to Armenian media, since 2022, Armenia has been supplying mobile phones, household appliances, and cars of European, American, and other origin to Russia. While gold, diamonds, and jewelry flow from Russia through Armenia to other countries, the opposite is happening with consumer goods: they are coming from the West into Armenia and then being sent on to Russia. In 2023, Armenia exported nearly 1.7 million mobile phones, worth a total of $535 million.
With such a financial windfall, Armenia has no incentive to develop its own industry or real economy. If the Russia-Ukraine war drags on for a few more years, Armenia could easily climb the ranks of the world’s most advanced economies—without doing much to earn it. What’s even more striking is that everyone knows about Armenia’s “easy money.” Some benefit from it, others stay quiet. Russia is solving its problems by dodging sanctions, and the West is getting what it needs. The real performance isn’t just on the Russian-Armenian stage.
The West is also playing its part, publicly pressuring Russia while continuing to trade with it. Just look at the Russian state budget, which has soared during the war, largely due to dividends from selling energy to Europe—even under sanctions. Recently, news emerged that Germany is planning to buy Kazakh oil… through Russia. Europe will act like it’s not dealing with Russia, all the while using Russian territory. And there’s no doubt Russia will be more than happy to oblige.
So, it’s not surprising that Armenia’s blatant violations of Western “rules” go unnoticed in Brussels and Washington. This situation benefits everyone. After all, finding a partner as unprincipled and willing to do anything as Armenia is no easy feat. Yerevan happily plays both sides against each other, yet continues to be praised and rewarded. Meanwhile, the West keeps talking about the importance of sanctions against Russia, punishing those who are innocent, while knowing full well what’s going on behind the scenes. Everyone knows where the “Armenian economic miracle” comes from, but all sides keep playing along.
Both the West and Russia have always turned a blind eye to Yerevan’s antics, and they continue to do so. Armenia is the product of their joint efforts, a favourite child that gets away with everything. The West is showering Armenia with gifts in the form of solid European and American currency because, as long as Armenia exists, the region remains a playground for global powers. As Politico reported last October, just days before Azerbaijan’s counterterrorism operation in Karabakh, Russian, US, and EU representatives secretly met in Istanbul to discuss ways to contain Azerbaijan. But Azerbaijan acted first, throwing the conspirators’ plans into disarray.
Armenia is rapidly militarizing under the guidance of the US, with help from France, India, and others. But few know that Russia has returned to the Armenian market as well. According to Caliber.Az , Russia has resumed arms supplies to Armenia, including Smerch missiles. Moreover, Russia has been delivering arms under previously signed contracts for several months. Publicly, Russia claims it’s limited in exporting weapons due to the war in Ukraine. Apparently, this only applies to Azerbaijan, not Armenia.
The hypocritical show goes on, with even more elaborate twists. The game is being played at all levels, and while Baku may face challenges, there’s no doubt it will succeed.
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