How Kazakhstan Becomes Middle Power to Watch, Reshaping Regional Geopolitical Narrative

ASTANA—With its strategic diplomacy, economic growth, and regional leadership, Kazakhstan is redefining its role on the global stage as a middle power, trying to rewrite the region’s geopolitical narrative, writes Svante E. Cornell, a Swedish scholar, co-founder, and director of the Stockholm-based Institute for Security and Development Policy, in his recent feature article, “Kazakhstan and Middle Powers in Greater Central Asia.”

View on the center of Kazakhstan’s capital Astana. Photo credit: The Astana Times

Cornell discusses the concept of a middle power, the transformation of Kazakhstan into such, and its implications for the region of Central Asia and their relations with other countries. 

What does it take to be a middle power? 

Middle power refers to a country that is not a superpower but still has significant influence and importance on the global stage. While the exact definition is still debated, middle powers can have relatively strong economic, diplomatic, and military capabilities. 

Svante E. Cornell is a co-founder and Director of the Institute for Security and Development Policy. He is the Director of the Central Asia-Caucasus Institute & Silk Road Studies Program, the Joint Center operated by ISDP in cooperation with the American F

According to Cornell, they play the role of stabilizing force and mediating “between or balancing the ambitions of greater powers.” They also tend to focus on multilateralism and the promotion of international order. 

“Most scholars agree that middle powers are international in focus, multilateral in method, and ‘good citizens’ in conduct. Middle powers often turn to international organizations and multilateral agreements as a tool to exercise influence,” writes Cornell. Openness to internal reforms is also instrumental to the sustainability of a middle power. 

Kazakhstan’s emerging role

Kazakhstan’s emergence as a middle power challenges what Cornell describes as an “inaccurate” and “misleading” view of Central Asia as a passive region caught in a great game between larger powers. 

Kazakhstan proves that even a landlocked state in the heart of Eurasia can exercise considerable agency on the global stage that “serves as an anchor for the stability and development of the region.”

According to Cornell, several factors enable one to consider Kazakhstan as a middle power. 

“First, the country’s economy is by far the most developed of the region. Second, it has taken a proactive approach to developing a foreign policy to handle the competition among great powers. Third, it is taking a leading role in promoting regional cooperation. Fourth, it plays a crucial role in the connectivity of the region. Fifth, Kazakhstan has gone beyond the region with international initiatives that cemented its role. Finally, its internal reforms make its status as a middle power increasingly sustainable,” writes Cornell. 

Kazakhstan’s balancing foreign strategy 

Kazakhstan’s established role in the international community is not the result of luck or geography, though both have played their parts. Rather, it is the outcome of deliberate statecraft. 

Since gaining independence in 1991, Kazakhstan has pursued a multivector foreign policy that balances relations with the world’s major powers while asserting the country’s sovereignty and regional influence.

“The premise of the Kazakh foreign policy strategy was how to avoid being subjugated to the great powers or becoming an apple of contention among them. Further, the strategy sought to prevent a situation where the state has to engage in constant hedging among the great powers, jumping from relations with one power to another as necessity requires,” writes Cornell. 

The essence of the nation’s foreign strategy is built on positive balance, an approach that involves maintaining strong ties with Russia and China, its two most powerful neighbors, while also developing relationships with other global powers. According to Cornell, the viability of such a delicate balancing act is proved by the fact that other Central Asian states later adopted it. 

Regional leadership 

Kazakhstan has played a key role in rejuvenating Central Asian cooperation, particularly in its partnership with Uzbekistan. In the article, Cornell recalls the 1994 initiative between Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan to establish a single economic space and the regional cooperation platform in 1995, dubbed the Central Asian Union and later the Central Asia Cooperation Organization. It, however, “fell victim to the geopolitical pressures of the time.”

Cornell writes that Shavkat Mirziyoyev’s election in 2016 opened up a new opportunity for regionalism, which Astana didn’t hesitate to seize. This collaboration has led to regular meetings among Central Asian leaders and increased coordination on issues ranging from security to economic development.

Overall, Kazakhstan has been a driving force behind regional cooperation efforts not only in Central Asia. The country has also been a strong advocate for Turkic cooperation, being at the forefront of the establishment of the Organization of Turkic States. 

“As a consistent champion of regional cooperation, Kazakhstan has been the initiator and consistent supporter of a series of cooperative ventures involving Central Asia as a region, the broader Caspian-Central Asian basin, as well as Turkic cooperation. As these initiatives increasingly bear fruit, they are a testament to the ability of middle powers to shape the region around them,” writes Cornell. 

Cornell noted another example of Kazakhstan’s efforts to boost cooperation in the region – the development of the Trans-Caspian International Transport Route, a transport corridor connecting China to Europe via Central Asia and the South Caucasus. Kazakhstan has invested heavily in infrastructure to support this route, including the development of ports on the Caspian Sea and the creation of a dry port at Khorgos on the Chinese border. 

Kazakhstan’s international initiatives

Kazakhstan’s emergence as a middle power also involves its role on the global stage. One of the most significant ways Kazakhstan has asserted itself internationally is through its advocacy for nuclear disarmament, a cause with deep roots in the country’s history.

The Soviet Union conducted more than 450 nuclear tests between 1949 and 1989 at the Semipalatinsk test site in eastern Kazakhstan. The legacy of those tests has been devastating. Upon gaining independence, Kazakhstan closed the test site and dismantled its arsenal, which was the world’s fourth largest at the time. This decision has earned Kazakhstan a unique moral authority on nuclear issues, and the country has used this position to promote global disarmament initiatives, including through practical steps. 

Cornell argues the nation’s contributions to global security are not limited to nuclear issues. From the chairmanship at the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) in 2010, during which it brokered a summit that brought together leaders from across the region, to hosting the talks on the Iranian nuclear program and the Syrian conflict, Kazakhstan pushed to position itself as a good international citizen – a key aspect of a middle power. 

Internal reform agenda

In the article, Cornell argues that the sustainability of a middle power hinges upon its openness to reforms. He goes on to say that for political reform to be sustainable, it “must be undertaken in a manner that sustains rather than weakens sovereignty and in a manner that is synchronized with the country’s security against external threats.”

The article commends President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev’s reform agenda. Key reforms include the introduction of a Constitutional Court to enhance the rule of law, greater autonomy for local governments through the election of rural akims (mayors), efforts to recover assets stolen by officials and transferred abroad, and the introduction of a new law tightening responsibility for violence against women and children. 

According to Cornell, these reforms are designed to “modernize the country in a controlled fashion.”

“The aim of these reforms is not to trigger immediate democratization or a rapid liberalization of the political system. Kazakhstan’s leaders remain skeptical of uncontrolled liberalization, fearing the security risks that it could entail for a country bordering Russia and China,” writes Cornell. 

Challenges moving forward

The future of a middle power, however, is not guaranteed, as there are both external and internal challenges. Externally, the erosion of international norms poses significant risks. “The rules-based international system and middle powers, in a sense, go hand in hand,” writes Cornell. 

Internally, Kazakhstan is undergoing political reforms, but these efforts must be carefully managed to maintain internal stability and meet the public demand for change.