I am among those who believe the coming sharp decline in populations worldwide – driven in part by a collapse in women’s willingness to have large numbers of children and revealed in stark detail in the UN’s recently released World Population Prospects report – is something to be welcomed rather than feared.
Our world is overpopulated. We overconsume and overproduce in pursuit of infinite economic growth on an all-too-finite planet in which resources are being rapidly depleted and essential biodiversity is under threat. The sooner our human population begins to contract and we manage to constrain our urge to consume “stuff”, the better.
However, I recognise at the same time that the coming sharp contraction in population will provoke shocks that will be difficult to manage. Intelligent management of migration is likely to play a critical role in helping us manage those shocks.
02:20
Japan rolls out ‘last-chance’ efforts to curb population decline
Japan rolls out ‘last-chance’ efforts to curb population decline
The trouble is that worldwide migration gets a terrible press in many countries. A January report from the European Council on Foreign Relations elaborated on how a “migration crisis triggered an identity panic centred on questions of multiculturalism and the meaning of nation-states”.
A Gallup poll from February found that 55 per cent of US respondents said “large numbers of immigrants entering the United States illegally” was a critical threat to vital US interests. That rises to 90 per cent among Republicans versus just 29 per cent among Democrats. A Republican majority in the House of Representatives has thwarted US President Joe Biden’s efforts to put in place a “fair and humane” immigration regime.
In the UK, racist street riots across the country show that the rightwing’s obsession with “taking back control” of the country’s borders during Brexit burns as hot as ever. Whether it is French President Emmanuel Macron being assailed by his country’s far-right, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz being undermined by populists clustered around Alternative for Germany or Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni seizing power in Italy, there is an unpleasant sense that migration is an issue derailing governments across the world.
The fact that this angst is almost entirely unjustified counts for little, especially when social media is so prone to maliciously contrived misinformation and disinformation. It is also perhaps unsurprising that this time of crisis, with appalling conflicts raging in Gaza and Ukraine, is fanning anxieties over instability and unprecedented geopolitical conflict.
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Anti-racism protests sweep UK after far-right riots against immigration
Anti-racism protests sweep UK after far-right riots against immigration
The Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) is not wrong when it reports Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has led to “the largest refugee surge to the OECD area since World War II”. The International Organisation for Migration (IOM) does not pull any punches when it recognises that the past two years “saw major migration and displacement events that have caused great hardship and trauma, as well as loss of life”.
However, conflating such distressing events with judgments about the generally beneficial effects of migration is painfully mistaken. The overall facts tell a different, more nuanced story.
The IOM’s 2024 World Migration Report estimates there are around 281 million international migrants globally, 169 million of whom are migrant workers who together remitted US$831 billion back to their families in 2022. The main beneficiary countries in 2022 were India, which received US$111 billion in remittances, followed by Mexico (US$61 billion), China (US$51 billion), the Philippines (US$38 billion) and France (US$30 billion).
Most migrants work along well-recognised and regulated migration corridors. According to the IOM, “most migration is regular, safe and orderly – regionally focused and often directly connected to work. What captures attention in headlines is just part of the story.”
Migrants walk across the Rio Grande carrying food and other supplies back to a makeshift encampment under the International Bridge between Del Rio, Texas, and Acuna, Mexico, on September 17, 2021. Photo: AFP
As the demographic revolution gathers momentum, the stark reality is that the role of migrant workers will become critical in maintaining economic growth across large parts of the world. As the World Population Prospects report noted, “migration will be the sole driver of population growth in high-income countries”. The challenge facing countries such as China and Japan will not be to keep migrant workers out but to create strategies that bring in more.
Competition is set to become fierce for talent with the skills needed to maintain economic momentum in countries that are or will be in population decline. Going forward, the economies that succeed in attracting migrants are likely to be those that fare best through our coming demographic revolution. It is a pity that so few politicians yet recognise that.
David Dodwell is CEO of the trade policy and international relations consultancy Strategic Access, focused on developments and challenges facing the Asia-Pacific
