Non-residents added $36.5 billion into their emerging market (EM) stock and debt portfolios in July, a banking trade group’s data showed on Thursday, which marked the largest inflows volume since January and more than twice the June size.
The Institute of International Finance (IIF) also said prospects for lower interest rates in the United States further brightened the outlook for EM assets.
Debt issuance accounted for the bulk of the net inflows to EM portfolios last month, a total of $29.4 billion, according to IIF data.
A further $7.1 billion went to stock portfolios.
The combined total is more than double June’s $17.2 billion inflow and $4.6 billion above July 2023.
“The driver for the strong debt performance this month has been the fresh issuance of debt, with Korea, Türkiye and Mexico at the forefront,” Jonathan Fortun, an economist at the IIF, said in a statement.
He noted that a contraction in carry trade operations likely weighed on the performance of local currency debt as the Japanese yen, a key funding currency, rallied.
Yet the prospect of lower yields in the United States is a tailwind for EM assets, according to Fortun.
“Looser monetary policy in the U.S. will provide a boost to emerging markets,” he wrote.
“As inflation trends downward across the globe, many EM central banks may find the leeway to loosen their monetary stances as well. This potential shift could help stabilize EM currencies and support economic growth.”
Futures traders have priced in a 7-in-10 chance of a 50 basis point rate cut from the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) at its September meeting, according to the CME FedWatch tool. A month ago that probability was at 5%.
Revised IIF data showed a small net outflow in April, leaving July as the eighth month of inflows since November.
Chinese portfolios posted a $4.7 billion outflow in July, with stocks shedding $0.9 billion and debt $3.8 billion. Still, Asia led regionally with a net $21 billion inflow.
Emerging Europe, Africa and the Middle East, and Latin America posted inflows of $6.2 billion, $5.3 billion and $4.0 billion respectively.
