Russia is not only defeating Ukraine on the battlefield but also by targeting its power facilities. A recent missile attack left 100,000 people without power in the northeastern region of Sumy. Such attacks on energy facilities have become routine, often plunging Ukraine into extended blackouts, leaving civilians without running water, air conditioning or critical medical equipment in hot summer conditions.
People block traffic in Zaporizhzhia, Ukraine, on July 19 to protest at regular power cuts caused by massive Russian missile attacks that have devastated the country’s energy facilities. Photo: AP
Before the invasion, Ukraine had a generating capacity of 36 gigawatts (GW) of electricity. In late 2022, Russia began targeting Ukraine’s electricity infrastructure, resulting in the loss of half of that capacity due to occupation, destruction or damage.
Ukraine managed to restore some capacity and barely maintained the necessary 18GW to keep the lights on last winter. However, recent attacks have destroyed an additional 9GW of capacity. It is uncertain whether Ukraine will be able to endure another winter.
Meanwhile, Russia’s strategic partnerships with Iran and North Korea ensure a steady supply of ammunition and resources. Russia’s close relationship with China has also bolstered its capabilities. This contrasts starkly with Europe’s struggle to keep up with Ukraine’s weapon needs. The uncertainty surrounding the United States’ future involvement is another pressing concern for Ukraine.
Former US president Donald Trump has vowed, if re-elected in November, to end the war quickly by negotiating a deal between Russia and Ukraine, which would probably mean halting weapon supplies to Ukraine. This potential shift could leave Ukraine in an even more precarious position, deprived of critical support from its main Western ally.
Rescuers and volunteers search for victims on July 8, after a Russian missile hit a children’s hospital in Kyiv. Photo: AP
On the economic front, Western sanctions have not had the devastating impact on Russia that many in the West had hoped for. Bolstered by expanding ties with China and other Asian states, the Russian economy, while certainly strained, has not collapsed and shows no signs of doing so in the near future.
In fact, the International Monetary Fund expects Russia to grow 3.2 per cent this year, significantly more than the UK, France and Germany. Conversely, the war is exacting a heavy toll on Ukraine’s economy. The country’s gross domestic product has shrunk by a quarter since the war began. Last year, the central bank depleted its foreign reserves, and ongoing attacks on critical infrastructure have further dampened growth forecasts.
Despite these daunting realities, the West continues to foster false hopes of a decisive Ukrainian victory. Such optimism only serves to push Ukraine into an even weaker position. The Western narrative often fails to acknowledge the determination of the Kremlin to keep going until it achieves its goals.
On the other hand, Europe is struggling to match this level of support for Ukraine, facing logistical, political and economic challenges. The European arms industry is not equipped for a prolonged, high-intensity conflict, and the continent’s political unity is fraying. Earlier this month, the European Union stripped Hungary, one of the bloc’s member-states, of the right to host the next meeting of foreign and defence ministers over its stance on Ukraine war.
While war weariness is growing in the US and Europe, Russian President Vladimir Putin is determined to win, ready to deploy all available resources to achieve his goals.
Before Ukraine loses any more significant territory, it is time to concede that negotiations with Russia are the only viable step to end the war and the suffering of the Ukrainian people.
Inevitably, Ukraine will have to cede the land that Russia has annexed, a heavy price indeed. However, the heavier price is the continued destruction of Ukraine, the ongoing loss of life and the potential for even more Ukrainian land to fall under Russian control. Every day that the war continues, Ukraine risks losing more of its future.
On a recent visit to China, Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba said Kyiv was prepared for direct negotiations with Russia if Moscow acts in good faith. This is a positive development. It is now up to Ukraine’s Western allies to accept this posture.
Negotiations will be painful and will require Ukraine to make significant concessions. However, this is the harsh reality of the situation. The alternative is continued warfare with diminishing resources, waning international support and increasing domestic hardship. The longer the conflict drags on, the weaker Ukraine’s negotiating position becomes.
While it is always preferable to negotiate from a position of strength, the next best option is to do so before one’s position becomes weaker. For Ukraine, this means making the painful decision to negotiate now, while it still has some leverage left, to prevent further devastation and loss.
Alexander Clackson is the founder of the Global Political Insight think tank in London, and a researcher on Russia
