Analysis: As chances of a Trump 2.0 presidency shoot up, how ready are Southeast Asian states?
The uncertainty is how the three states will deal with a Trump presidency, given his voter base is “probably more inclined to take a stronger pro-Israel stance than Biden on the ongoing war in Gaza”, she noted.
Southeast Asia also has to face some “hard truths about US leadership in the region” regardless of who is president, said Ms Lee.
Its domestic politics have become more polarised and dysfunctional, its protectionist mood is here to stay, and its strategic competition with China will only intensify and will move into new domains and critical sectors, she noted.
In June, for example, US tariffs on certain solar products from four Southeast Asian countries – Cambodia, Thailand, Malaysia and Vietnam – took effect to tackle what officials said were efforts by some Chinese firms to dodge American tariffs by routing solar panels through other countries.
“Industrial policy, therefore, is here to stay,” said Ms Lee.
HOW SOUTHEAST ASIA CAN PREPARE ITSELF
The region can prepare for a potential second Trump presidency in several ways, experts say.
Countries can double down on efforts to deepen regional economic integration to become a more attractive place for investment and trade, said Dr Pitakdumrongkit.
Should Trump pull the US out of any regional trade or economic agreements if he becomes president, countries can engage the US through bilateral means and identify common interests to propel collaboration in areas like sustainable development, innovation or the digital economy, she said.
The Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) should also continue to uphold ASEAN centrality and an international rules-based order for its own benefit, she added.
Dr Shafiah said ASEAN should find ways to make itself more “relevant to the major powers’ interests”.
“So far, ASEAN has not done its homework in terms of making this institution more relevant to current global challenges,” she said.
“We are still doing business as usual, meetings after meetings, and I don’t think that sort of format is appealing to a lot of our major dialogue partners including the US,” she said.
But there are “no easy answers” on changing the status quo because of the way ASEAN bureaucracy is designed, she added.
