THE International Sugar Organization (ISO) raised its global sugar deficit forecast for the current 2023/24 season on Monday (Jun 10).
The ISO expects a deficit of 2.954 million tonnes versus the 689,000 tonnes deficit it forecast in its last update in February, the inter-governmental body’s quarterly report on 2023/24 (October/September) showed.
Global production in 2023/24 was seen at 179.270 million tonnes, down from a previous forecast of 179.749 million.
Consumption is expected to rise to 182.224 million tonnes versus 180.438 million tonnes previously, the ISO said.
The ISO kept its forecast for top producer Brazil’s 2023/24 production steady at 44.519 million tonnes, but added that downward revisions to regions including North America had more than offset higher output estimates for Thailand and China.
“The ISO has shifted from a neutral to a more bullish outlook over the next three months,” the report said.
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“The widening notional deficit, alongside an expanding gap between import and export volumes, and the speculative short positions contribute to a transition in market sentiment for prices,” it explained.
Due to these factors, the ISO now sees the ending stocks to sugar consumption ratio for 2023/24 falling to 53.54 per cent, down from 54.63 per cent previously.
The group also estimates that, due to better demand than previously anticipated, there was a global sugar deficit of 1.153 million tonnes in the 2022/23 season rather than a surplus of 308,000 tonnes. REUTERS
