US’ relations with Taiwan likely to be factor in upcoming presidential elections
US LIKELY TO STICK TO STATUS QUO
Analysts told CNA that the US will likely stick to the status quo, given that its presidential candidates would not want to contend with a crisis as they try to rally support.
Biden and former president Donald Trump are gunning to re-enter the White House, with the election set to be held on Nov 5.
Containing China tends to be one of the few areas of bipartisan policy agreement in Washington DC, meaning that US support for Taiwan is likely to continue no matter who wins the presidency, the experts noted.
Michael O’Hanlon, senior fellow and director of research in foreign policy at American think-tank The Brookings Institution, said he thinks “things are okay” because the incoming Taiwan president understands where things lie.
“I think that Vice-President (William) Lai, soon-to-be President Lai, understands that wherever his heart may be and wherever his past may have been on the issue of Taiwan independence, it’s a non-starter for the United States – in the sense that if it were simply declared or actively promoted, it would lead to a crisis that we just don’t need,” O’Hanlon added.
He also said that the issue is not likely to appeal to American voters, if it is explained to them that promoting Taiwan independence would increase the risks of war.
“I don’t really feel like the American people are in a bloodthirsty mode,” he added.
The people in Taiwan would also want to avoid such a situation, Einar Tangen, senior fellow at Beijing-based non-profit organisation Taihe Institute told CNA’s East Asia Tonight.
“I don’t think anybody in Taiwan wants to risk kinetic warfare. They’ve seen what’s happened in Ukraine. They’ve seen what the US and Europe pushed Russia into doing and they don’t want to see that happening to them,” he said.
Taiwan’s top diplomat in the US, Alexander Yui Tah-Ray, has said it is “under constant challenge from mainland China” and that international support is vital for its survival.
The representative of the Taipei Economic and Cultural Representative Office in the United States added: “We are well aware that we need to increase our security preparations against any eventual or possible Chinese aggression, but also, it’s important to be integrated economically in the world.
“And to us, the more integration we do with the world, the better we are protected against mainland Chinese aggression.”
