Is India’s opposition ‘in disarray’ to challenge Narendra Modi’s BJP in election?

Kejriwal has denied the charges, while the opposition is arguing that the arrest was a move by Modi to weaponise the law against his political rivals.

“The way the prime minister of the country has been acting like a dictator and suppressing democracy to arrest Kejriwal, all the people in the country who love democracy are angry,” said Gopal Rai, a senior minister in Kejriwal’s government and a member of the AAP, at a press conference last Sunday announcing the public rally.

“And it’s not just about Kejriwal but the way the whole opposition is being targeted one after another with the help of [federal law enforcement] agencies,” Rai added.

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Several prominent opposition politicians, including three other senior AAP leaders, have been arrested in recent months on charges of corruption. Another leader who was arrested and remains in prison is Hemant Soren, former chief minister of Jharkhand.

Just hours before Kejriwal’s arrest, the Indian National Congress (INC), the main opposition party, said its bank accounts had been frozen by the tax department owing to a tax dispute dating back to 2018-2019.

Critics say such high-handed measures instigated by the Modi administration are aimed at crippling the opposition and tilting the elections in the prime minister’s favour, even though he enjoys high approval ratings.

Most opinion surveys for the coming election predict Modi will win a third five-year term.

Nearly 40 anti-BJP parties, comprising centre-left and regional groups, joined forces to form the Indian National Developmental Inclusive Alliance (INDIA) last June to contest the parliamentary polls.

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Collectively, these parties accounted for 142 representatives in the lower house (Lok Sabha) of the 543-member parliament in the 2019 general election. They are aiming to increase their seats this year and prevent the BJP from securing a supermajority. The BJP and its allies won 353 seats in the election.

But after months of confusion over seat-sharing arrangements, internal rivalries and desertions, the alliance has become fragile and lacks a central political figure to lead the opposition.

“It’s disappointing to see the status of the INDIA coalition, as it started in a much stronger position a year ago. The momentum is lost,” said Ashutosh, an independent political analyst who was formerly with the AAP.

“It failed to project itself as a single unit speaking in one voice. The opposition looks in disarray,” added Ashutosh, who goes by a single name.

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India’s global reputation

While India has made significant strides on the economic front under Modi’s decade-long rule, it has slipped in global rankings on democracy and civil liberties.

India’s political rights and civil liberties were downgraded from “free” to “partly free” in the 2021 Freedom in the World report. Freedom House, the pro-democracy organisation behind the report, based its assessment on increased pressure on human rights organisations, rising violence against minorities and a crackdown on freedom of expression in India.

The 2023 World Press Freedom Index by Reporters Without Borders ranked India at 161 out of 180 countries, a decline from 150 a year earlier. The report cited India’s challenging environment for the media, including intimidation, and restrictive laws for its ranking.

The opposition has vowed to improve India’s standing on the global stage for democratic values.

“India’s reputation has taken a severe hit under Modi’s rule. We will restore the prestige of India globally if elected to power,” INC spokesman Akhilesh Pratap Singh told This Week in Asia.

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“In the last 10 years, Modi’s rule has done nothing for the country. All they want is to crush the opposition. People are fed up with Modi’s false promises,” he added.

In an interview with This Week in Asia, BJP spokeswoman Shazia Ilmi criticised the opposition alliance, saying it “lacks vision” to move India forward unlike the ruling party.

“The BJP has captured the imagination, minds, and hearts of the people. We’ve been persuasive and pervasive. The biggest challenge with the opposition is they don’t have a narrative,” Ilmi insisted.

She also took a dig at the internal feuding among the opposition parties.

“Beyond the anti-Modi sentiment, the only common thread in the entire opposition is this whole baggage of dynastic politics and serious corruption charges. They can’t decide whether they hate Modi more or each other more,” she added.