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Global Impact: China warns of infringing on its sovereignty, Philippines plans first submarine as South China Sea tensions continue

arifnsn February 5, 2024

0 26 4 minutes read

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Philippines accuses China of using water cannons to obstruct its vessels in South China Sea

With months of naval skirmishes with China still fresh in its minds, the Philippines this week signed a coastguard-cooperation pact with Vietnam, pledging to share information, set up a communication hotline, and work on a joint coastguard committee.

Beijing uses pinyin terms to double down on its claims over South China Sea

But that has not deterred France from discussing with Manila ways to strengthen military cooperation, including negotiations on allowing troops into the other’s territory for joint exercises.

Not to be outdone, the Italian Navy is also expected to send its flagship aircraft carrier Cavour, along with its battle group, to the region this year.

60-Second Catch-up

Deep dives

The South China Sea and Taiwan may be twin powder kegs, but which is riskier?

As Taiwan and its newly elected president grab the headlines, another potential hotspot for US-China ties has been brewing in the region
Frequent clashes between China and the Philippines in disputed South China Sea has observers weighing the costs of an alternative conflict

Beijing had long advised against a victory for Lai, from Taiwan’s ruling Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), and cast Saturday’s election as a choice between war and peace. If it now chooses to step up pressure on Taiwan, the United States might be prompted to make a tougher response, according to observers.

Beijing shows restraint as Philippines plans to upgrade South China Sea outposts

China appears to be taking ‘wait and see’ approach after Manila says it will improve facilities for troops deployed on disputed reefs and islands
Observers say Beijing could blockade Philippine ships – if the project goes ahead – but US involvement would complicate Chinese response

Beijing likely views Manila’s plan to upgrade its South China Sea outposts as a provocation, but it appears to be taking a “wait and see” approach rather than reacting swiftly, according to analysts.

Is Beijing warming to South China Sea code of conduct?

Tensions with the US and a stronger negotiating position after years of reclamation are likely to be driving Beijing’s renewed enthusiasm
But observers say there are also signs that the Southeast Asian bloc claimants are more interested in a meaningful result than a quicker one

One of the world’s lengthiest diplomatic sagas – the decades-long marathon between Beijing and Asean to agree a code of conduct in the South China Sea – is back in the spotlight, with a recent surge in tensions in the disputed waters.

China, which has been accused of dragging its feet for about a quarter of a century, has taken a number of recent opportunities to show its support for an early resolution to the regional debate.

South China Sea: Beijing’s approach ‘will badly backfire in the future’

China could do long-term damage to its relations and influence in Southeast Asia, observers say
Leaders are expected to raise concerns over Beijing’s new map of the waterway during Asean summit

Beijing risks damaging its ties in the region if it continues efforts to assert control in the disputed South China Sea, analysts said ahead of the annual Asean gathering.

They said recent developments in the resource-rich waterway served as a “warning” to regional governments, which would increasingly gravitate towards the United States and its Western allies.

How Philippines-China ideology clash could spike tensions in disputed waters

The countries’ opposing ideologies amid clashing sovereignty claims could lead to years of militarisation and confrontation in the region if not contained, analysts warn
Manila has been boosting defence ties with various countries with the aim of building ‘collective deterrence’ in the event of conflict in the region

The recent trading of barbs between China and the Philippines over ideological differences highlights the “perennial mistrust” between the two neighbours, experts say, noting that their disparate approaches to democracy and authoritarianism are likely to further escalate tensions in the South China Sea.

Will Manila’s plans to build in South China Sea escalate tensions with Beijing?

The Philippines allocates funds to build ‘permanent structure’ on disputed Second Thomas Shoal
The move will probably not cause ‘full-scale escalation’ of tensions but China is prepared to address further provocations, observers say

Manila’s approval of funding to build a “permanent structure” on a disputed reef is unlikely to lead to a “full-scale escalation” in the South China Sea, but Beijing has “many plans” to respond if the Philippines goes along with US provocations in the region, analysts said.

Tensions between Beijing and Manila over the Second Thomas Shoal were renewed last month after the Philippine congress allocated an undisclosed amount of money to build a permanent facility on the disputed reef, prompting strong condemnation from Beijing.

Will more assertive Philippine approach to South China Sea pay off?

Manila is trying to give its maritime confrontations with China maximum publicity in the hope of gaining more international support
Some observers question whether this approach will prompt a change in Chinese behaviour

Philippine coastguards have escorted boats to the South China Sea to resupply its military base on the disputed Second Thomas Shoal seven times in the past four months.

Each time, they have complained about China’s coastguards and maritime militia obstructing their journey to the disputed reef in the South China Sea or making dangerously close passes.

Philippines stands out in Asean over embrace of US’ Indo-Pacific strategy

The policy has raised ‘activity and presence’ of military exercises from the US, India, Germany and even Russia, in the South and East China seas
This stirs up a ‘South China Sea conflict vortex’, in which China exhibits assertiveness, buoyed by the US viewing Beijing as its ‘strategic competitor’

The Philippines is the odd one out in Asean in its total, welcoming embrace of the United States’ Indo-Pacific strategy, while other member states have viewed Washington with caution and concern, according to speakers at a conference in Manila on South China Sea maritime security.

“The Indo-Pacific concept [by the US] is a trigger for South China Sea tensions,” Dr Supartono, director of Hang Tuah University in Surabaya, Indonesia, told the Maritime Security Conference in Metro Manila, held on November 22 by Singapore’s Asia Collective and the Manila-based International Development and Security Cooperation founded by security analyst Chester Cabalza.

Global Impact is a weekly curated newsletter featuring a news topic originating in China with a significant macro impact for our newsreaders around the world.

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