As if that weren’t enough, the military has announced that the Philippines will fortify its facilities on disputed features in the South China Sea.
After six years of Beijing-friendly foreign policy under former president Rodrigo Duterte, the Philippine political and defence establishment has embraced an uncompromising stance on maritime disputes with China.
While they may see this as a justified response and a noble attempt at preserving their country’s sovereign rights, the Philippines should also be wary of overcorrecting its China policy. Otherwise, the two rival claimants may sleepwalk into dangerous waters.
05:12
Philippines races to upgrade its degrading military in the face of maritime disputes
Philippines races to upgrade its degrading military in the face of maritime disputes
Of all the regional states, the Philippines has arguably had the most chaotic foreign policy in recent memory. A staunch US ally up to the early 2000s, the Southeast Asian nation suddenly pursued a “golden era” of relations with China under the Arroyo administration.
Things radically changed under the succeeding Aquino administration, which openly embraced a growing American military presence in Asia and, crucially, took China to international court over the South China Sea disputes.
There was, once again, a 180-degree policy shift when Duterte took the reins in the mid-2010s. Even by Philippine standards, he was a major geopolitical shock. For the first time in Philippine history, a sitting president threatened to sever the alliance with America in favour of a new one with China and Russia. Aside from cussing at then-president Barack Obama, Duterte blocked the Pentagon from pre-positioning weapons systems on Philippine bases.
Duterte often expressed his “love” for the Chinese leadership, saying in 2018 that he needed China “ more than anybody else at this time of our national life” and calling China his “protector” (against any Western-backed coup).
Chinese President Xi Jinping (left) shakes hands with then Philippine president Rodrigo Duterte during the opening ceremony of the 2019 Basketball World Cup in Beijing on August 30, 2019. While in power, Duterte had often expressed his “love” for the Chinese leadership. Photo: AFP
Insisting that his country should remain “meek” and “humble” in exchange for China’s “mercy”, Duterte repeatedly refused to criticise China despite multiple incidents in the South China Sea, most notably when a suspected Chinese militia vessel rammed into a Filipino fishing boat in the Reed Bank area in 2019.
A charismatic populist, Duterte largely managed to defy both the Western-trained Philippine defence establishment and broader public opinion on the South China Sea disputes. Since his departure from power, however, the Philippine elite has adopted a China-sceptic foreign policy with a vengeance.
The Philippines is simultaneously publicising its encounters with China in the disputed waters and stepping up its resupply and construction efforts on disputed features.
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Philippines sets up ‘game changer’ monitoring station on island in disputed South China Sea
Philippines sets up ‘game changer’ monitoring station on island in disputed South China Sea
Though the Philippines’ new-found strategic assertiveness is understandable against the backdrop of the Duterte era’s passivity, it also risks adding fuel to fire. The Philippines should first and foremost maintain the diplomatic high ground by letting professional diplomats do their job.
Foreign secretary Enrique Manalo, a veteran diplomat, has adopted a very measured and calibrated language on China and the South China Sea disputes. The foreign affairs department has also worked to diffuse tensions, most recently reaffirming the country’s one-China policy after President Marcos Jnr’s surprise congratulatory message for newly elected Taiwan president William Lai Ching-te.
It is crucial that Manalo and the foreign affairs department remain the primary and predominant source of major policy pronouncements; top defence officials should rather focus on matters regarding national defence. As for Filipino politicians, most of whom remained mum during the Duterte years, they should shun anti-China demagoguery ahead of elections, in favour of responsible statesmanship.
The Philippines should also calibrate its defence strategy. Facing a far more militarily superior China, which boasts the world’s largest naval force, the Philippines has leaned on traditional Western allies to enhance its leverage and deterrence capacity. But this should be part of a broader diplomatic strategy that both serves Philippine national interests and preserves regional security.
Manila should explore a common understanding with Beijing, whereby each side helps avoid unnecessary confrontation without compromising core interests. For its part, the Philippines can assuage China’s concerns by not granting the Pentagon full access to prized bases near Taiwan’s southern shores.
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Marcos says US bases in Philippines not for ‘offensive action’ as Taiwan tensions simmer
Marcos says US bases in Philippines not for ‘offensive action’ as Taiwan tensions simmer
Under the Enhanced Defence Cooperation Agreement (EDCA), the Philippines has the prerogative to determine the size and nature of the American military presence in facilities across northernmost provinces such as Cagayan, Isabela and Batanes.
In exchange, China should not aggressively interfere with Philippine efforts to fortify its position on areas already under its control, including Second Thomas Shoal, Thitu island and Nanshan island. Once a measure of mutual trust has been restored, both sides can explore concrete initiatives such as a joint development of energy and fisheries resources in the South China Sea.
The ultimate goal for the Philippines is to diplomatically manage the disputes and preserve its sovereign rights from a position of strength.
Richard Heydarian is a Manila-based academic and author of Asia’s New Battlefield: US, China and the Struggle for Western Pacific, and the forthcoming Duterte’s Rise
