Accusing South Korea of pursuing a “unification by absorption” policy, Kim described inter-Korean relations as “relations between two states hostile to each other and the relations between two belligerent states”.
This week, he said the North Korean constitution should be amended to include “the issue of completely occupying, subjugating and reclaiming the ROK and annex it as a part of the territory of our Republic in case a war breaks out on the Korean peninsula”, while defining the South as the North’s “invariable principal enemy”.
This is a big deal for several reasons. First, this is the first time North Korea has publicly announced it is abandoning the goal of unification. North Korean propaganda and the government have long promoted that goal, with various songs, artwork and structures dedicated to reunification.
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North Korean constitution change raises threat of nuclear war as it declares South its ‘top enemy’
North Korean constitution change raises threat of nuclear war as it declares South its ‘top enemy’
Second, if North Korea no longer sees the South as its “other half” or “fellow compatriots” but instead as an enemy state, the chances of accidental military clashes or an outbreak of conflict on the peninsula are suddenly much higher.
Third, if North Korea does amend its constitution to define the South as its main enemy, this would directly affect the country’s military and defence policies. It is likely to lead to a more rapid and aggressive military build-up and further technological development of its nuclear and other weapons programmes.
Fourth, with North-South relations hitting a dangerous new low, it is questionable whether the United States can help defuse the situation and promote a return to diplomacy. North Korea has no interest in talks with the Biden administration as long as Washington’s policy towards Pyongyang remains focused on denuclearisation. To make matters worse, South Korea also shows no signs of changing its hardline North Korea policy.
In response to the announcements made in the North, South Korea’s unification ministry has accused Pyongyang of attempting to divide South Korean society with a “politically provocative act”. President Yoon Suk-yeol was even harsher, saying on Tuesday that, “Our military has an overwhelming response capability … Should North Korea provoke us, we will punish them multiple times as hard.”
He also made clear in his 2024 new year address that his country would pursue “peace through strength” and not “a submissive peace that is dependent on the goodwill of the adversary”.
With both Koreas sticking to their positions, a resumption of diplomacy this year is unlikely. Instead, North Korea will want to further deepen cooperation with Russia while South Korea will remain focused on strengthening deterrence aimed at Pyongyang with the help of the US.
At the moment, however, North Korea seems anything but deterred. Instead, Pyongyang is acting bolder than ever, going beyond its usual aggressive rhetoric and matching its words with actions that could have major destabilising consequences for the peninsula and the wider region. The North has already begun dismantling several organisations in charge of affairs with the South and increased military activity along the border.
These recent developments paired with the de facto collapse of the 2018 inter-Korean military agreement have raised the chances of accidental military clashes. Even so, although the North is likely to ramp up provocations and inter-Korean relations will continue to worsen, there is little chance Pyongyang will conduct a first strike against Seoul or launch an all-out attack. Despite its military advancements, it would not benefit North Korea to go into a war facing the US and South Korea’s combined military power.
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Kim Jong-un vows to accelerate war preparations, while the South holds rare defence drills
Kim Jong-un vows to accelerate war preparations, while the South holds rare defence drills
If conflict did break out, it could be a result of an accidental military clash between the two sides, perhaps involving the death of military personnel or civilians. Even in this case, however, a conflict would not necessarily follow. For example, war did not break out on the peninsula in 2010 when the North was accused of sinking a South Korean ship and then shelling a South Korean island months later.
Neither North nor South Korea are likely to soften their policy stance for the sake of improving inter-Korean ties. As such, November’s US presidential election results will weigh heavily on the near-term fate of the peninsula. A renewed Korean conflict could turn into an all-out war with global implications.
The next US president must defuse tensions on the peninsula by getting Pyongyang back to the negotiating table. Any agreement that can halt North Korea’s weapons development, build trust between Washington and Pyongyang and improve the trajectory of inter-Korean relations should be urgently pursued.
Dr Gabriela Bernal is a North Korea analyst based in Seoul, South Korea
