Indonesia election 2024: rivals Ganjar and Baswedan eye deal to thwart Widodo’s succession plan

In recent weeks, officials backing former Central Java governor Ganjar Pranowo and former Jakarta governor Anies Baswedan discreetly met several times to discuss a possible pact. That may include intensifying their campaigning in areas dominated by Prabowo in an attempt to dilute his votes and force a run-off election, according to people from both camps who declined to be named as the matter is sensitive.

Under the proposed alliance, Ganjar or Baswedan – who is campaigning on an opposing policy platform – will endorse each other should the February 14 election go to a run-off in June. The defence minister is now leading opinion polls by a wide margin in his third bid for the presidency, with Ganjar and Baswedan trailing behind.

Any alliance between Ganjar and Baswedan would only be firmed up should there be a run-off election, the people said. The talks have progressed to the point where both parties are already discussing how to divide cabinet seats should either one become the next president.

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Baswedan declined to elaborate on any talks to form the alliance on Tuesday, but he did not rule out the possibility.

“Let’s not get ahead of ourselves – we don’t know the result yet,” he said ahead of a campaign event on the eastern island of Sulawesi. “We are focused on February 14. We want to get as much support as possible.”

Representatives for Ganjar’s camp did not respond to requests for comment. On January 9, Ganjar himself told reporters “everything is possible” when asked about rumours of the talks that had been circulating in local media for days.

The talks picked up pace after January 5 when Jokowi, as the incumbent leader is popularly known, was photographed having a one-on-one dinner with Prabowo, they said.

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That dinner, coupled with earlier meetings he had with the defence minister since late 2022, have signalled that the president has thrown his support behind Prabowo, alarming people in the two rival camps and cementing their view that Jokowi is working behind the scenes to secure Prabowo’s victory, the people said.

Less than a day after the dinner, Jokowi started inviting top members from political parties supporting Prabowo to the presidential palace where they discussed the election, the leader told local media.

While Jokowi has not openly endorsed any candidate, his son Gibran Rakabuming Raka becoming Prabowo’s running mate has led to the defence minister being widely seen as the president’s favoured contender.

From India to Indonesia, 2024 is Asia’s election year. But will anything change?

Indonesia is less than a month away from its election when over 204 million eligible voters will choose a leader to oversee the US$1.3 trillion economy. The next leader will take over from Jokowi who’s wrapping up his final term after nearly a decade in power.

It’s likely to be a long election season – if none of the three candidates secure at least half of the vote, there will be a run-off in June.