Opinion | Why Philippines will struggle to forge South China Sea alliance with Vietnam

If anything, some Asean leaders seem subtly critical of the Philippines’ more assertive stance in the disputed waters.

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Marcos Jnr says China showing interest in South China Sea atolls that lie close to the Philippines

Marcos Jnr says China showing interest in South China Sea atolls that lie close to the Philippines

Yet, while the Philippines is likely to gain some economic and diplomatic benefits from warmer ties with Vietnam, it will struggle to forge any robust military cooperation in the South China Sea.

Up until the 1980s, a major concern for Asean’s founding members was the potential rise of Vietnam as an aggressive hegemonic force. But the collapse of the Soviet Union, a key ally of Vietnam, dramatically altered the geopolitical landscape. The Philippines not only came to be a major proponent of Vietnam joining Asean, it has also come to see the communist nation as an unlikely ally in the face of a rising China.

The election of Beijing-friendly Philippine president Rodrigo Duterte, however, effectively ended any hopes of a robust alliance. If anything, pro-Duterte elements in Manila began portraying Vietnam, which occupies the most land features in the Spratlys of all the claimants, as the primary threat in the South China Sea.

Now, amid rising tensions with China, Marcos Jnr seems determined to rekindle strategic ties with Vietnam, which is also the Philippines’ top rice supplier. Philippine foreign secretary Enrique Manalo billed Marcos Jnr’s visit to Vietnam as a major step towards raising “bilateral ties to even greater heights”. Realistically, however, Marcos Jnr should temper his expectations.

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Vietnam’s communist leadership is likely to resist any fully fledged alliance. Ideologically, Hanoi is not only wary of alliances but also deeply sceptical of Western influence, and will aim to keep a healthy distance from US-allied liberal democracies such as the Philippines.

Vietnam’s military, meanwhile, is largely dependent on Soviet-Russian systems. This complicates prospects for any major defence technology cooperation with the largely US-armed and trained Philippine military, which also happens to be generally wary of communist regimes.

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Xi Jinping says Vietnam is a ‘diplomatic priority’ as Chinese leader seeks closer bilateral ties

Xi Jinping says Vietnam is a ‘diplomatic priority’ as Chinese leader seeks closer bilateral ties

Accordingly, Marcos Jnr may push for greater strategic solidarity during his visit, and even explore a maritime agreement.

Overall, however, Marcos Jnr’s trip to Vietnam is likely to be heavier in strategic symbolism than substance.

Richard Heydarian is a Manila-based academic and author of Asia’s New Battlefield: US, China and the Struggle for Western Pacific, and the forthcoming Duterte’s Rise