In response to Pelosi’s trip, Beijing launched military exercises to press home its point. The US claimed it was overreacting, although it must know full well Taiwan’s importance to Beijing.
China’s State Council published a white paper soon after Pelosi’s visit, emphasising that the actions of the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) government, with active encouragement from external forces, had resulted in tensions that restricted the space for peaceful reunification.
In the coming presidential election, it seems the DPP could well retain the presidency, after the opposition parties failed to put forward a unity candidate.
The late Henry Kissinger, the secretary of state who prepared for then-US president Richard Nixon to visit Beijing in 1972 – setting in motion the normalisation of relations – offered a reminder last August that the one-China policy had usefully “preserved peace” for 50 years.
Since Pelosi’s visit, a myriad of lower-ranking politicians from the US and its allies have visited Taiwan, thumbing their noses at Beijing. The US has increased arms sales to Taiwan, including offensive weapons, even though its 1979 Taiwan Relations Act provided that only arms of a defensive nature should be sold.
The US regularly accuses Beijing of being aggressive by holding military exercises near Taiwan, although US naval ships and planes frequent the same area. Yet the US military has a chain of over 310 airbases and military ports surrounding China. No wonder Beijing is sensitive and sees the US provocations as a key security threat.
Meanwhile, China’s neighbours are concerned about higher risk levels because military mishaps could turn into outright conflict. Even countries further afield have skin in the game because, without peace, there can be no development.
10:34
What Taiwan’s presidential election will mean for China, the US and the world
What Taiwan’s presidential election will mean for China, the US and the world
The wars in Ukraine and Gaza have affected regional security and growth prospects. Rich countries may have the privilege of not focusing much on socio-economic development, but poorer countries are very keen to advance. Conflict between the world’s two major powers over Taiwan would only slow progress for all.
Beijing is unlikely to “overreact” because its long-standing policy is to create the conditions for a peaceful reunification, although it has not renounced the use of force if necessary, because a deterrent against secession is needed.
Beijing adopts a strategy of inducement and coercion. There is more coercion, such as now, when it feels Taipei and external forces are trying to pull away from the one-China policy.
03:50
Mainland China white paper declares ‘greatest sincerity’ for peaceful reunification with Taiwan
Mainland China white paper declares ‘greatest sincerity’ for peaceful reunification with Taiwan
Beijing has offered the “one country, two systems” formula for reunification with Taiwan. For those who don’t want reunification, painting Hong Kong in a bad light helps them argue against Beijing’s solution. But until authorities in Taipei are willing to explore the conditions for reunification, there is no reason for Beijing to depart from its long-standing rhetoric.
What is concerning is that the US defence strategy casts China as the greatest danger to American security. It wants to build military capabilities and alliances using Taiwan to both egg on and dissuade Beijing, it seems.
Beyond the risk of an outright military battle, the US and China are locked in combat over technology, especially computer chips and other semiconductor component products. There are lessons here.
Hi-tech companies in Taiwan, the Netherlands, Japan and South Korea, for example, are facing limits on their exports to the Chinese mainland – their biggest market and hence hard to replace – due to US sanctions. Some are also being forced to invest in manufacturing in America.
The “I win, you lose” approach does not in fact guarantee victory – the affected private-sector companies have to suck up losses, while China has to work triply hard to develop its capabilities.
27:21
Biden’s China tech policy goal: a 10 year handicap
Biden’s China tech policy goal: a 10 year handicap
Taiwan is not unaware of how the US sees the island. When former US national security adviser Robert O’Brien visited Taipei last year, he suggested that one million AK47-wielding Taiwanese “around every corner” and “in every apartment block” would be useful in fighting off mainland troops. But it’s doubtful that this is what the Taiwanese want.
Taiwanese politicians should not denigrate Hong Kong’s situation too loudly. As the US and China continue to tussle on many fronts, Hong Kong will have to find its own way of surviving and prospering.
A Hong Kong doing badly under “one country, two systems” won’t really help Taiwan. But a Hong Kong doing well can at least provide an idea of what could be for Taiwan, on a bigger and more attractive scale.
Taiwan should reflect on Kissinger’s warning to the US not to edge towards war, the conditions for which it has partly created “without any concept of how this is going to end or what it’s supposed to lead to”. Taiwan should be wise and keep its options open with Beijing.
Christine Loh is chief development strategist at the Institute for the Environment, Hong Kong University of Science and Technology, and a visiting scholar at Anderson School of Management, UCLA
