Throughout history, there have been pivotal moments in geopolitics that have shaped the world. The appointment of Adolf Hitler as chancellor of Germany in 1933; the 1947 Mountbatten Plan announcing the partition of India and eventual withdrawal of the British Empire from the Indian subcontinent; the dissolution of the Soviet Union, granting independence to the Soviet states in December 1991.
These geopolitical events shifted the tectonic plates of the world, even if few people at the time knew the consequences of what was occurring. Today, the world is passing through a similar moment in history.
Across the globe, geopolitics has reached an inflection point that will define the coming decades. A broad array of factors have converged, from economic stagnation and ideological resurgence to global disorder and the breakout of multiple wars, pushing the world in an unfamiliar direction.
Look at the West. There was near-unanimity over imposing sanctions on Russia for its invasion of Ukraine, but that unity now appears to be in the balance. Robert Fico, the new prime minister of Slovakia, campaigned against Europe’s sanctions on Russia, while the right-wing Swiss People’s Party, Switzerland’s largest political party, wants to enshrine “neutrality” into the constitution in a bid to never again pick sides in geopolitics.
Look at China. The US tech war against Beijing has entered a new phase. The recent smartphone from Huawei, said to be sanctions-proof, has reinvigorated China’s drive to build technological self-reliance. A new post-sanctions world is forming, taking US-China rivalry into more unchartered territory.
The new Huawei Mate 60 smartphone is displayed in a store in Beijing on September 11, 2023. Huawei unveiled the Mate 60 and Mate 60 Pro in late August and launched two more smartphones in September that are powered by the new Kirin 9000s chip. Photo: EPA-EFE
Look at Israel. The October 7 attack by Hamas has the potential to reverse decades of progress in stabilising and unifying the Middle East. This region connecting Europe and Asia stands at the precipice of change, with fragmentation being the new status quo and everything from energy to connectivity being governed by new geopolitical fault lines.
These events might not sound transformational or monumental, but they are. They represent a breakdown in the architecture of the world that has governed nations since the end of World War II. They are a sign that the same conditions that existed at other historical junctures have returned.
Many people are likely to miss the significance of what is happening because most of the world’s attention is on a big “black swan” event. However, short of a civil war in the United States or a nuclear exchange between India and China, it will be the accumulation of more low-profile geopolitical events that unleash historic change on the world.
What picture is being drawn by the geopolitics of today? First, the current world order is under siege. It is more fragile that at any point in almost a century. From reliance on the United States for security to the ability of the US to call the shots, nations are rethinking how closely they should stand with the superpower.
More Europeans do not want to rely solely on the US for defence; the Saudis called the Iranians when the Gaza war broke out; India has begun purchasing energy without using US dollars; Australia has seen how difficult it would be to fully decouple from China. It used to be that the rest of the world would readily go along with what the US thought was best, but today American efforts to lead meet with resistance, scepticism or even complete disregard.
Second, a new decade of war has begun, as is evident by the conflicts in Europe and the Middle East. These wars are unleashing chaos and fracturing regions. As the borders of these wars continue to expand – such as the fighting in Gaza spilling over to the Red Sea – the effects of these wars will only snowball.
As these geopolitical pressure cookers explode, governments are becoming aware of what is happening and rearranging their chess pieces. They are responding to the writing on the wall and focusing on security, both military and economic.
Third, religion, ideology and culture are making themselves heard in the global consciousness with a new fierceness, breaking up populations along new fault lines. The rise of religious zealots leading governments or anti-immigrant societies is no longer a fringe possibility. The ripples from this are spreading globally, defining which government gets elected and whose agendas will set the course of world events.
Former US president Donald Trump leaves after speaking during a campaign rally in Durham, New Hampshire, on December 16. The White House condemned Trump for using what it described as fascist rhetoric after he said immigrants were “poisoning the blood of our country”. Photo: AFP
There is no time for naivety or lack of clarity on what is taking place. The foundation the world has stood on cracked long ago and chasms are now forming, many of which will be unbridgeable.
The world’s key stakeholders should not try to reverse what is happening or reimpose the old status quo. That will fail and could inadvertently make things worse. The task now is to recalibrate global systems to absorb the shock waves of what is to come.
At the core of what is happening is a metamorphosis in geopolitics. Rather than simply being a risk or a peripheral concern, geopolitics is becoming a transformative force which fuels a new global environment in which every business and country will have to operate.
In the backdrop of all this is a void in political leadership. We need a new generation of political leaders to rise onto the global stage, eager to rescue a world descending into crisis and chaos. These leaders must be bold and geopolitically savvy from the get-go. The question is who among them has truly transformative ideas and who is brave enough to test them.
Abishur Prakash is the founder of The Geopolitical Business, an advisory firm in Toronto
