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Biden’s U-turn on Delhi trip won’t mar US-India ties amid ‘stable’ shared interests

arifnsn December 15, 2023

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“It is most likely because of the whole [assassination attempt] issue that is coming up between India and the US,” said Manoj Joshi, a distinguished fellow at the Observer Research Foundation in Delhi.

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The US had accused India in November of trying to kill Gurpatwant Singh Pannun, a Sikh separatist leader who is an American citizen. Delhi subsequently set up a high-level probe into the allegations.

Pannun is the general counsel for Sikhs for Justice, a New York-based organisation that supports the broader Khalistan movement, which calls for an independent homeland for Sikhs in India.

The US allegations came within months of Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau accusing Indian intelligence agents of the murder of another Sikh separatist, Hardeep Singh Nijjar, which led to a diplomatic row between the two countries.

The Khalistan movement peaked in the 1980s in the northern state of Punjab, but has lost steam over time.

Other analysts say several reasons are behind Biden’s cancelled visit.

I don’t think [the alleged assassination attempt] will mar US-India relations, but there will be a certain chill

Manoj Joshi, academic researcher

“Biden is also not doing too well in his electoral prospects, and he may not want to travel too much,” he said, referring to US surveys that showed the American leader trailing former president Donald Trump in an expected 2024 election match-up.

“I don’t think [the alleged assassination attempt] will mar US-India relations, but there will be a certain chill.”

But the US would also like to see signs that its complaint had led to action by Indian authorities, such as the sacking of officials, he added.

US President Joe Biden and Indian PM Narendra Modi at the G20 leaders’ summit in Bali in November. Photo: AP

Growing ties

In June, the two leaders signed a raft of deals spanning military equipment to renewable energy during Modi’s visit to Washington, signifying Delhi’s shift from decades of dependency on Russia, particularly in defence.

Biden had travelled to India in September during the G20 summit, helping to bring to fruition an unexpected joint communique.

“The India-US bilateral relationship has acquired considerable robustness over the last five years,” said C. Uday Bhaskar, director of Delhi-based Society for Policy Studies.

“While there are areas of disagreement, and perhaps some disappointment and even discord … the larger long-term geopolitical and strategic compulsions for both nations has ensured that ties remain stable,” he said.

Others said the suspected assassination attempt might not have been a factor in Biden altering his plans.

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“Biden is unlikely to take a trip to the Indo-Pacific before the 2024 election, and since he was just in India a few months ago. I think the White House likely viewed this as a secondary priority,” said Zack Cooper, a senior fellow at the Washington-based Centre for Strategic and International Studies think tank.

Additionally, the US president probably had to stay put in Washington in January to avert the possibility of a government shutdown related to discussions over spending limits, he said.

“Fundamental structural factors are driving Washington and Delhi closer together – particularly shared concerns about China’s rise,” he said, adding that both sides would also prefer to discuss the assassination case behind closed doors.

With elections looming in both the US and India, another snag to Biden’s visit cancellation could be the timing of a Quad meeting.

India, which is the Quad’s chair next year, might have been aiming for talks in January ahead of national elections expected in April, noted Harsh Pant, a professor of international relations at King’s College London.

US elections are in the second half of the year, compounding the scheduling difficulties.

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“It would have been good to have Quad in the first half of 2024 because it is a signal of intent. The momentum would have continued,” Pant said.

“If there is a new government in India in May, some momentum would be lost at the highest level.”

Modi’s government, however, appears to be in pole position to win a third consecutive term after victories this month in key state elections.

Some reports have suggested that Biden’s decision could signal a snub for Modi ahead of India’s polls, but analysts say it will not dent the premier’s chances.

“It would take a black swan event to upset Modi,” said Yashwant Deshmukh, an independent political commentator.

“As things stand, it looks like it will be a cakewalk for him.”

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