Myanmar on the brink but Asean could be ‘caught off-guard’ if the junta were to collapse

The NUG is the Myanmar government in exile formed by elected lawmakers and members of parliament ousted in the coup almost three years ago.

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Myanmar faces its biggest challenge yet to its rule amid recent setbacks in war with rebel groups

Myanmar faces its biggest challenge yet to its rule amid recent setbacks in war with rebel groups

Named Operation 1027, the offensive was launched in late October by an alliance of three powerful ethnic rebel armies in the country’s northeast, and has since escalated into a nationwide push to take control of towns and areas in Myanmar’s north, west and southeast.

“Min Aung Hlaing, his forces, and the military network of militias, cronies, monks and administrators, will do their utmost to prevent a collapse,” Gravers said, referring to the top general who seized power from the democratically-elected government in February 2021.

“The army still has loyal and functioning units, while many in the resistance have old or homemade weapons,” said Gravers, who has researched Thailand and Myanmar since 1970.

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Sharon Seah, senior fellow and coordinator at the Asean Studies Centre in the Singapore-based Iseas-Yusof Ishak Institute, said the slump in military morale or troop defections was insufficient to show that the regime is about to collapse.

“We need to see greater coordination between the resistance forces and the emergence of a central command,” Seah said.

Two major signs to look out for were the military losing control of a major township such as Laukkai or Mandalay, and the withdrawal of support from China and India for the regime, she added.

Laukkai is the capital of Kokang in Shan State, while Mandalay is a major trading and communications centre for northern and central Myanmar.

Although the “Balkanisation” – or the fragmentation of a country into smaller units – of Myanmar had been discussed in the region, it was not accompanied by any serious contingency plans in mind, Seah said.

Myanmar’s immediate neighbours – China, India and Thailand – are concerned about the implications of a collapse on their border security and have been watching developments closely, she noted.

“Some immediate implications include a political security vacuum leading to forced migration of communities across borders,” Seah said.

A fracture of the country towards “a loose federal system” is an outcome that “no one, least of all Myanmar’s neighbours, is prepared for”.

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She added it was not “entirely clear” if Asean has discussed the possibility of the break-up of Myanmar, and neither did it have any plans on how it would respond.

“Asean will certainly be caught off-guard,” Seah said.

Rifki Dermawan, an international relations lecturer at Andalas University in West Sumatra, said Asean was “unprepared to face drastic change” in Myanmar.

As the chair of Asean this year, Indonesia, where public sentiment is largely pro-Palestinian, was among the countries that co-sponsored a United Nations Security Council resolution calling for an immediate humanitarian ceasefire in Gaza. On Tuesday, Indonesia, which recognises the state of Palestine and does not have diplomatic ties with Israel, pledged to triple its contributions to the UN relief agency for Palestinians.

Htwe Htwe Thein, an associate professor at Australia’s Curtin University, said Asean was unsuited to lead negotiations concerning Myanmar’s future as the bloc’s reputation had been damaged by its inability to implement the Five-Point Consensus.

The peace plan calls for measures including an immediate end to violence in Myanmar and for dialogue to be conducted among all involved parties in the country.

“I would have more faith in individual countries such as Malaysia, Indonesia, Singapore, South Korea, or even China and India to step in and play a meaningful role,” she said.

An alternative to a regime collapse is a scenario where the military reforms itself and replaces its top generals, Htwe Htwe Thein said. If a negotiated solution were to happen, Min Aung Hlaing and his deputy Soe Win would have to step down due to the lack of trust in these leaders by the opposition, she added.

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“There would be a heightened need for desperate humanitarian assistance,” she said, adding that neighbouring countries might have to provide much-needed safe corridors to deliver aid and support reconstruction in the country.

Since the October offensive, nearly half a million people have been internally displaced, according to the UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs, which also points out that food, shelter, hygiene, basic health and protection are the most pressing needs across the conflict-affected areas.

The most serious problems for the regime right now were the deteriorating economic situation and the regime’s “mismanagement”, Gravers of Aarhus University said.

“Fuel has become sparse, the kyat is fast losing value, and prices on all necessities are increasing, a bankruptcy is lurking and this could shatter the internal loyalty in the military network,” Gravers said.

A bankruptcy would deepen the humanitarian crisis and force the generals to seek negotiations with the NUG, he said. “Negotiations will be difficult, can the NUG trust Min Aung Hlaing? In addition, will he accept the disarming of his forces?”