Record 4.7 billion passengers expected in 2024 as airline industry recovers

GENEVA: Airlines should carry a record number of passengers next year as the sector puts the COVID-19 pandemic behind it, the industry’s top trade association said on Wednesday (Dec 6), although profitability remains a concern.

The International Air Transport Association (IATA), in its traditional review of industry trends as the year draws to a close, said more normal growth patterns were expected from here on out as the sector has recovered to pre-pandemic levels.

“People love to travel and that has helped airlines to come roaring back to pre-pandemic levels of connectivity,” IATA’s director general Willie Walsh said as the body forecast a record 4.7 billion people will take to the skies in 2024.

IATA noted this is a “historic high that exceeds the pre-pandemic level of 4.5 billion recorded in 2019”.

For this year, it expects 4.29 billion passengers, a small drop from its June forecast of 4.35 billion.

Walsh said “the speed of the recovery has been extraordinary” but also noted it “appears that the pandemic has cost aviation about four years of growth”.

Aviation suffered immensely from the travel restrictions that countries imposed in a bid to slow the spread of COVID-19, with a number of airlines going out of business and others bailed out as the industry racked up US$183 billion in losses during the 2020 to 2022 period.

IATA raised its profit outlook, expecting airlines to post US$23.3 billion in net earnings in 2023, more than double the US$9.8 billion it forecast in June.

IATA forecasts US$25.7 billion in net profits in 2024 on a 7.6-percent rise in revenues to US$964 billion.

Walsh called the figures a “tribute to aviation’s resilience” but said the industry’s profits need to be put into perspective.

A “net profit margin of 2.7 per cent is far below what investors in almost any other industry would accept”, he said.