New Zealand’s Beijing ties to remain ‘consistent’ even as China hawk returns as foreign minister

With new China-friendly PM, how will New Zealand balance the big powers?

“New Zealand’s coalition government is likely to maintain a consistent approach to major partners, including China,” said Young, who is also director of the New Zealand Contemporary China Research Centre.

“As in any coalition arrangement with three parties, foreign policy usually becomes centrist, suggesting we are likely to see more consistency than change,” he added.

Wellington has successfully walked the tightrope of calling out China on its aggressions in the Pacific region and exercising diplomacy with Beijing.

Former leader Jacinda Ardern was tough on China but had said there was no need for retaliation and more need for dialogue.

The policy involved an increase in New Zealand’s aid budget for the Pacific region and more interactions between New Zealand and the United States and countries that were becoming wary of China’s actions in the region, Miller said.

With more hawkish attitudes among Western nations towards China now than seven years ago, Peters might feel confident to take his Pacific Reset “to the next level”, although there was a safety switch, he said.

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“Peters will only be one of several ministers deciding the future shape of New Zealand’s international relations. The trade and defence ministers are both from the National Party and both are seasoned politicians who will be well aware of Peters’ views,” Miller said.

Further, former business executive Luxon is focused on his key goal of fixing New Zealand’s economy and making sure he sends the right international messages, particularly those that underpin the country’s solid trading relations, Miller said.

“[Luxon’s] National Party has a strong rural base, which if anything became stronger at the last election. China is still New Zealand’s biggest trading partner by far, so Luxon’s own party faithful would have a lot to lose if New Zealand’s relations with China soured,” Miller said.

New Zealand political commentator and foreign policy expert Reuben Steff said Peters might seek to strengthen the country’s ties with the US but would avoid confrontations with Beijing given New Zealand’s trade relations with China.

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Stephen Jacobi, New Zealand trade expert and executive director of the NZ International Business Forum, remained wary but was comforted by Peters’ experience as a foreign minister who was aware of China’s importance to New Zealand and an absence of “anti-China” rhetoric in his election campaign.

“Given his past views, Winston Peters is likely to support at least further exploration of the idea or, with a US election year coming up, perhaps to play for more time,” Miller said.

Peters’ view that the Pacific has to keep an eye on the power contest in the region aligned with his stance that Aukus made the region “safer” through deterrence, Steff noted.

“In reality, the decision will not be left up to Winston Peters alone. The Aukus issue is one of the biggest foreign policy decisions facing New Zealand in a generation,” Miller said.