Is India-China rivalry over Maldives set to deepen after troop withdrawal order or ‘more fiction than fact’?

Maldivian President Mohamed Muizzu’s post-election directive this month for India to withdraw troops from the tiny island nation has heightened fears of an escalating New Delhi-Beijing rivalry over the strategically located archipelago.

Beijing and New Delhi have been vying for influence in the country in the Indian Ocean, which sits on a busy shipping corridor. Analysts say these sea lanes are vital for India to defend its southern state of Kerala and could emerge as a potential flashpoint between India and China, whose relations have deteriorated since a border clash three years ago.

Chances of conflict between the two Asian giants over the Maldives are low at the moment, security analysts say, with one citing New Delhi’s calm reaction to the withdrawal order and both sides are trying to reach a compromise.

The new Maldivian leader had previously campaigned on the election plank of altering the nation’s “India First” policy. In September, he defeated his predecessor Ibrahim Mohamed Solih, whom he accused of allowing India to hold sway over the island nation. India maintains 70 soldiers, a radar station and surveillance aircraft in the Maldives. Indian warships help guard the island nation, and its helicopters and aircraft are used for medical evacuations.

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Manoj Joshi, a distinguished fellow at the Observer Research Foundation, said New Delhi had correctly responded by not overreacting to the troop withdrawal order and is hopeful of a compromise.

Earlier this week, Muizzu’s government said it was trying to reach a workable solution with India.

“All said and done, geography is such that you cannot ignore India. China is too far away,” Joshi said, referring to India’s closer physical proximity to the Maldives. In the event of a threat from Chinese armed forces, the combined militaries of India and the US should be able to act as a deterrence, he added.

Indian observers believe Muizzu’s anti-India stance should be viewed as mere optics for voters, given his election pledge.

A China-based analyst, however, said the Maldivian voting pattern showed the nation’s desire to assert its sovereignty.

“The vast majority of the Global South see themselves as victims of first physical [domination] by the Europeans, and then financial [domination] by the US. They are not eager to be subjected to any new form of domination and wish to be allowed to follow their own development paths,” said Einar Tangen, a senior fellow at the Taihe Institute think tank in Beijing.

“The Maldives vote should be seen in this context, not a false dichotomy that countries must choose sides,” he added.

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Maldives has traditionally been an ally of India, and its strategic importance has remained one of Delhi’s foreign policy priorities.

But the nation drifted rapidly towards Beijing after Abdulla Yameen, the half-brother of former dictator Maumoon Abdul Gayoom, was elected as president in 2013.

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India and China have invested heavily in developing infrastructure in the Maldives in recent years.

Beijing has helped build the China-Maldives friendship bridge that links the capital Malé to another island, as well as mass public housing estates on reclaimed land.

Last year, India provided US$100 million in aid to the Maldives to help the island nation overcome challenges arising from the collapse of tourism amid the pandemic. In August 2021, India and Maldives signed a deal to build bridges and viaducts linking Malé to surrounding islands.

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The Indian government has refrained from interfering in Maldivian domestic politics and focused on providing financial aid under its “Neighbourhood First” policy.

But relations between India and Maldives have waned since Muizzu’s election, New Delhi has indirectly snubbed the government over his swearing-in ceremony, analysts say.

India’s Earth Sciences Minister Kiren Rijiju, who hails from Arunachal Pradesh, a province disputed by China and India, travelled to the Maldives to attend the ceremony last week.

In contrast, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi attended the swearing-in ceremony of Muizzu’s predecessor, Ibrahim Mohamed Solih, in 2018. At the time, it was the first visit by an Indian premier to the Maldives since former PM Manmohan Singh’s visit in 2011.

Since then, relations between the Maldives and China have become closer, while Muizzu’s People’s National Congress party has also given its backing for Chinese loans, analysts said.

Nonetheless, the India-China rivalry over the Maldives should not be overstated and the island nation’s infrastructure development should be seen in the context of overall trade development, Tangen said.

“In terms of India-China competition on trade routes, it is more fiction than fact. The need for trade infrastructure has to do with development, not competition,” he said.

While it is inevitable that China will expand its investments in the Maldives, India’s presence is also expected to remain strong as the island nation’s tourism-dependent economy relies on Indian tourists and hospitality staff, said Pushpesh Pant, former dean of the School of International Studies at New Delhi’s Jawaharlal Nehru University.

“Maldives can’t expel all the Indians. It will be like shooting themselves in the foot,” Pant added.