China’s economic recovery uneven in October as property downturn continues, but retail sales rise

China’s economic activity in October rebounded modestly, but Beijing’s basket of supportive policies is still struggling to sustain a stable recovery, as persistent headwinds in the property market and private investment, as well as debt risks, still haunt the overall growth outlook.

The reading was higher than the 7.3 per cent growth predicted by economists surveyed by Chinese data provider Wind.

However, the property market continues to drag on the economy and poses a major downside risk to China’s growth outlook.

Real estate investment – which accounts for about 20 to 30 per cent of the total investment – fell by 9.3 per cent in the first 10 months of the year compared with a year earlier, contracting further from the 9.1 per cent drop in the first three quarters.

The reading was lower than the 9.2 per cent drop forecast by Wind.

Fixed-asset investment – a major growth engine – expanded by 2.9 per cent in the first 10 months of the year, compared with the same period last year, but was down from the 3.1 growth per cent in the first nine months of the year.

In October, industrial output rose by 4.6 per cent, up from 4.5 per cent growth in September, and higher than the 4.3 per cent expansion predicted by Wind.

Meanwhile, the overall surveyed urban jobless rate stood at 5 per cent in October, unchanged from September.

The 4.9 per cent year on year growth also meant China is expected to only need year-on-year growth of 4.4 per cent in the fourth quarter to achieve the “around 5 per cent” full-year growth target.

More to follow …