Xi-Biden summit: heed China’s Taiwan red line and ‘everything else’ is on the table with US, former envoy Cui Tiankai says

“The key is the one-China principle. As long as this principle is still there, as long as nobody is trying to challenge this one-China principle, there’s no need for the use of force. And under that basis within the framework of the one-China principle, everything else can be negotiated,” Cui said.

“But if this one-China principle is undermined and challenged, then the risk of war will increase very much.

“I just hope that on the United States’ side, US politicians would also have sufficient wisdom or even common sense not to advocate for war so easily.”

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Cui was speaking at the first-of-its-kind event co-organised by the South China Morning Post and Blue Pool Capital with the support of UBS.

The event follows the Global Financial Leaders Investment Summit last week and is another step in Hong Kong’s efforts to consolidate its position as Asia’s top financial hub.

Accompanied by Joe Tsai, chairman of the Post and Alibaba Group Holding, Hong Kong Chief Executive John Lee Ka-chiu welcomed the participants and told them that Hong Kong was an ideal location for family office businesses, with the city forecast to have no fewer than 200 such offices by the end of 2025.

And last year, the value of Hong Kong’s asset and wealth management business exceeded HK$30.5 trillion (US$3.9 trillion), Lee said.

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Several speakers at Monday’s conference also addressed China-US ties, saying they hoped the volatile relations would stabilise after the much-anticipated summit between Chinese President Xi Jinping and his US counterpart Joe Biden in San Francisco on Wednesday.

Speaking to the Post on the sidelines, Cui said the summit would be an excellent opportunity for the two leaders to agree to avoid confrontation and miscalculation between the two great powers.

“Meetings between the two presidents are always important, because this is at a top level. It gives strategic guidance to the relationship to go forward,” he said.

“And if this is done, it will enable us to move forward on many specific issues, including maybe the military-to-military exchanges.”

Other issues, such as the ethical use of artificial intelligence and combating climate change, could also feature in the presidents’ talks.

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Zhou Bo, a senior fellow of the Centre for International Security and Strategy at Tsinghua University, agreed that military dialogue would resume after the summit.

“I believe this kind of dialogue can resume soon after presidents Xi and Biden speak,” the retired People’s Liberation Army senior colonel said.

He said that once the military talks resumed Taiwan and the South China Sea would be top issues on the list.

Taiwan is seen as the biggest flashpoint, with confrontations in the air and water rising as the two superpowers flex their military muscle in the Indo-Pacific.

Earlier this month, US and Canadian warships made another transit through the Taiwan Strait, the third time since June, a week after Chinese and US warplanes were involved in a close encounter that almost caused a collision.

Yet top-level military communication between the two countries remains stalled despite US calls for an early resumption. US national security adviser Jake Sullivan said on the weekend that the issue would be Biden’s “priority” when he met Xi.

However, Li Cheng, a veteran China expert from the University of Hong Kong, played down the fear that Beijing would resort to force over Taiwan “any time soon”.

He said Xi had already secured his political legacy and would be in no rush to undertake any military adventurism in which the outcome was hard to predict. Besides, governing the island without local support would be costly and difficult, he said.

Zhou, the retired PLA senior colonel, also agreed that Beijing would not give up on the idea of peaceful unification.

He also noted that over the past four decades, Beijing had been spending around 1.5 per cent of its gross domestic product on the military, well below the 2 per cent standard for Nato members.

He said this showed that China did not see war as imminent.

But Cui, the former ambassador, warned that while China would be patient to achieve peaceful unification, its position on Taiwan was a matter of principle.

“The Taiwan question is a matter of national sovereignty, territorial integrity and national unity. So this is something like a life-or-death question for China. So there’s no room for concession.”

Beijing has declined to renounce the use of force on Taiwan, which it sees as its territory to be reunited with the mainland.

Most countries, including the US, do not recognise the self-governing island as an independent state. Many, however, oppose any attempt by Beijing to take the island by force.

The US continues to sell weapons to the island for its “self-defence” as US law requires. It has also strengthened economic ties and government-to-government contacts with Taipei while voicing support for its participation in international affairs, triggering strong protests from Beijing.