Israel-Gaza war: China’s path to peace is tested against US dominance in the Middle East

Beijing reflects “a bias in favour of the Arab world in terms of its policies”, said Yan Wei, deputy director at the Institute of Middle Eastern Studies at China’s Northwest University.

03:01

Malaysia’s leader condemns Israel over Gaza strikes as thousands attend pro-Palestinian rally

Malaysia’s leader condemns Israel over Gaza strikes as thousands attend pro-Palestinian rally

“China is of course in favour of the Arab side, but the problem is that the Arab side, especially Palestine, is now a victim of the existence of a serious humanitarian disaster,” he said, referring to Beijing’s stance on humanitarian issues in Gaza.

Zhang Chuchu, an associate professor at the School of International Relations and Public Affairs at Fudan University, said China’s diplomacy in the Gaza conflict is focused on de-escalation, meaning that Beijing must be cautious in its approach and “strictly avoid” actions that could escalate the conflict.

Beijing’s remarks were intended to touch on the “core issue” of the Israeli-Palestinian problem – an independent Palestinian state – which is “the actual source of conflict between the two parties”, according to Zhang.

“If the actual conflict between the two parties is not solved, even if there is a ceasefire, it is not real peace,” Zhang said.

But Nishank Motwani, a fellow at Harvard Kennedy School and a non-resident fellow at the Middle East Institute in Washington, said that Beijing’s approach revealed that it intended to further align with Arab nations and compete with Washington.

“For Beijing, openly supporting Israel comes at the cost of potentially cooling relations with more than 20 countries in the Arab League, which would militate against its goal of serving as a viable alternative to the US in the region,” Motwani said.

China’s presence in the Middle East has grown beyond its economic footprint. In March, Beijing helped to broker a peace deal between arch rivals Saudi Arabia and Iran, whose relations had been fractured since 2016. Before the peace deal, Beijing held its first summit with the Arab League in late 2022.

Malaysia will defy US pressure to label Hamas terrorists: PM Anwar

Beijing’s actions are regarded as signs that it intends to compete with Washington for influence in the Middle East, and China’s support for Arab states in the conflict will have a positive effect on China’s influence in the Middle East, according to Yan.

“China’s relations with Arab countries have been steadily enhanced for years. The positions of the two stakeholders on major international issues have been converging, mutually supportive and consistent,” he said.

However, Motwani said that Beijing’s credibility as a neutral peacemaker was under pressure, even as it positioned itself as an alternative power partner to the US in the region.

“China hopes to be a peacemaker in long-standing conflicts, including between Israel and Palestine, but its credibility is under strain as its remarks do not mention Hamas and stop short of criticising the attack on Israel,” he said.

03:14

Israeli family celebrates wounded son’s wedding as another son is missing in action

Israeli family celebrates wounded son’s wedding as another son is missing in action

Jean-Pierre Cabestan, head of government and international studies at Baptist University in Hong Kong, agreed that Beijing’s intention to keep a balanced role will be scrutinised after its initial response to the war.

“China will try to use this well-known inclination to appear more even-handed and balanced. But its refusal to condemn Hamas is an issue that will alienate the support of many countries, including among moderate Arab states,” he said.

China’s direct involvement in the conflict has fallen short, compared to that of the United States. US President Joe Biden landed in Israel on October 25, following a visit to the war-torn region by US Secretary of State Antony Blinken. So far, no Chinese minister has visited the area.

As a long-time ally of Israel, Washington’s active response to the war in Gaza – diplomatically and militarily – has strengthened America’s presence and profile in the region, according to analysts.

Washington’s engagement reflects the fact that it has no intention of diminishing its regional influence in the Middle East, but instead is reconfiguring its resources, according to Zhang.

“Biden has already said that the United States will not allow China to fill the so-called power vacuum in the Middle East. The US, in my opinion, is just reallocating its resources to some of the key areas [in the region],” she said.

“China has no intention of challenging US dominance in the Middle East, nor does it have the capacity to do so.”

Weeks ago, the US had reportedly been close to finalising a landmark peace agreement between Israel and Saudi Arabia. The Washington road map, verified by diplomats from the US and the Middle East, would see the two sides formally recognise each other within a security pact, defence treaty and economic partnership that could mark a new chapter between Arab states and Israel.

After the Hamas invasion of Israel, Riyadh suspended the deal. Zhang suggested the prospect of the deal had triggered the Hamas attack, and Riyadh has now suspended it in the wake of Israel’s response. But she added that Israel and Saudi Arabia may stay engaged, and despite its clear alignment with Israel, observers believe Washington will maintain its approach to Riyadh.

Still, China has signalled it intends to grow its clout in the region as it gains more leverage, said Cabestan, from Baptist University.

“The US has been a key actor in the Middle East since World War II, China is a newcomer … But China intends to compete for influence in the Middle East more forcefully than before, using the new crisis as leverage; hence its activism.”

He added that Beijing would continue to be proactive, pro-Arab and pro-Palestinian in the region while remaining close to Iran. Washington, on the other hand, would remain close to Tel Aviv and moderate Arab countries and would continue to push for recognition of Israel, he said.

Putin blames West for Gaza crisis, says US needs global chaos

Motwani said that China would use its relationships with Iran and Russia to pursue the role of “broker” in the region in the future.

“China will seek to leverage its strategic relations with Iran and Russia to position itself as a key mediator … as the conflict escalates and threatens to widen,” he said.

But Fan Hongda, a professor at the Middle East Studies Institute at Shanghai International Studies University, said Beijing and Washington were “unlikely” to have a serious conflict over Israeli-Palestinian issues.

“Both China and the United States want peace in the Middle East. Washington is firmly in favour of Israel because of the special relationship between the US and Israel, but the US will not place itself in opposition to the Arab world,” he said.

Nonetheless, Washington has also signalled it intends to step up competition with Beijing, despite their mutual presence in the Middle East being “at different levels”, according to Yin Gang, a research fellow at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, who noted that China’s Mideast influence is dominated by its economic presence.

“Both China and the US are great powers and both want to be present in the Middle East, but not in the same way, with the same historical roots and power, but instead with different areas of focus,” Yin said.

“This competitive relationship coincides with the Biden administration’s advocacy of not disengaging with China, but competing with it around the world.”

During a forum last year, Sun Degang, a researcher in Middle East affairs at Fudan University, said that Washington was competing with multiple rivals in the Middle East, while for Beijing, “the competition is mainly on economy and technology”.

Washington’s intention to target Beijing’s economic influence became clearer when the Biden administration announced a plan for the India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor (IMEC) during the G20 summit in New Delhi in September, a strategy widely regarded as an alternative to Beijing’s Belt and Road Initiative.

Wang Jin, a professor of Middle Eastern studies at China’s Northwest University, said that despite a potential delay to IMEC because of the stalled efforts to normalise Saudi-Israeli relations, the economic corridor was likely to resume once the conflict eases.

Israeli tanks reach Gaza City fringes as concern grows for hospitals

But Yin added that the economic competition between Beijing and Washington, especially in fields such as infrastructure, will benefit the development of regional members.

Fudan University’s Zhang added: “China and the United States in the Middle East is not just a competitive relationship; Middle East reconciliation is not a zero-sum game for China and the US, but rather favours the long-term interests of both countries.”

“For Washington, the settlement of Middle East conflicts can reduce US strategic resource investment in the region. For Beijing, Middle East rapprochement will help create a safer environment for Chinese investment in the region,” she said.