Don’t count on Xi Jinping-Joe Biden meeting to yield breakthroughs, provided it happens: analysts

“The most important thing [is] it sends a signal to their system that the two sides need to have dialogues, and the rest of the system falls into place,” said Bonny Glaser of the German Marshall Fund of the United States, a Washington-based think tank. “It might become difficult to do much in the absence of that higher-level meeting.”

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The American and Chinese sides have one thing in common: neither is likely to get anything close to what they want.

The US wish list includes an assurance that “reckless” behaviour and aggressive hot-dog moves by Chinese ships, fighter jets and quasi-civilian “grey-zone” forces will end and effective hotlines and other communication channels are open if something goes wrong.

“I don’t think they want an actual crisis that could really spin out of control, even though they want a higher risk profile that will force others to back off,” said Zack Cooper of the American Enterprise Institute, a Washington-based think tank.

“My sense is, given that China has been upping the ante in the South China Sea and transits and flights, we’re not going to see a real change in behaviour here. If that was the case, there would be fewer risky intercepts.”

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“Beijing sees the upcoming meeting as an opportunity to try to shift the trajectory, or at least find ways to put brakes on the pace of US actions.

“I think they’re going to be disappointed,” Blanchette added.

Apec is one of the few multilateral events that Taipei attends as Beijing has succeeded increasingly in limiting its participation in global gatherings.

“The Chinese are interested in stabilising the relationship for the short term,” said Glaser. “It’s tactical not strategic. It’s good to stabilise relations for the next year, even if there’s a new [American] president. And they need more time for their economy.”

Another important outcome will take place away from the cameras as the two try and take their measure of each other.

For the Americans, this means assessing whether Xi seems to be getting information he may not want to hear given how many loyalists he is surrounded by, and how seriously he takes China’s economic problems.

“The most import thing to come out of the meeting with Xi is not a deliverable. It’s an ability to look him in the eyes and both try and get a bit of understanding on how he’s thinking about issues and also to get some messages to him,” said Cooper, a former US Defence department official.

“People on our side are not sure what’s getting through to him from his team.”

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But others say any insights could be few and far between.

“We assume that they’re going to have a real conversation, but in fact many of these are heavily scripted, with reading papers back and forth,” said Jeffrey Moon, founder of China Moon Strategies, a Washington-based consultancy, and formerly with the US National Security Council. “This is not a free-flowing conversation.”

Even if Xi decides to give San Francisco a miss – and there is every indication he will attend considering the many confidence-building and people-to-people events rolled out in recent days – the bilateral meeting is likely to crowd out other Apec developments. Even his absence would be the focus of inordinate attention after all the build-up.

But expectations remain low and there is little enthusiasm in view of Washington’s unwillingness to move ahead on trade liberalisation or improved market access, a direction opposed by both Democrats and Republicans.

“I think it’s very useful for these leaders and trade and finance ministers to meet and talk,” said Murray Hiebert of Bower Group Asia, a consultancy, and formerly with the US Chamber of Commerce. “But it doesn’t deliver.”