As Thailand gets old before it gets rich, a demographic ‘ticking time bomb’ looms

Research from major Thai lender Kasikorn Bank estimates that by 2029 the kingdom will join a list of super-ageing societies where more than 20 per cent of the population are older than 65.

Asean’s developing nations are getting old before getting rich

“We’ve become old before we’ve become rich,” said Kasikorn Bank chief economist Burin Adulwattana. “We’re not ready.”

Currently, Thailand is home to more than 12 million over-60s – around 18 per cent of the population.

Low incomes, limited savings and inadequate government pensions will mean many endure extreme poverty, while fewer taxpayers and a healthcare spending bill expected to triple will be a huge fiscal burden.

“It’s definitely a ticking time bomb,” said Kirida Bhaopichitr from the Thailand Development Research Institute.

Poverty among older adults is already widespread, with 34 per cent of elderly Thais living below the poverty line – surviving on less than US$830 a year, according to Kasikorn.

To retire well in Bangkok at least US$100,000 in savings is needed, Burin said, but many Thais are retiring with less than US$1,300.

In August, the outgoing government announced it was restricting a previously universal pension of between US$16 and US$27 a month to low-income earners, cutting off 6 million people.

Thai PM Srettha Thavisin has vowed to eradicate poverty by 2027 and “leave no one behind”.

His party made an election pledge for an US$8.1 billion elderly welfare package but the government has not announced any pension boost.

Last month Social Development Minister Warawut Silpa-archa dismissed calls to raise the pension to US$81 a month, saying the kingdom could not afford it.

“I wish the government could provide more support because right now the cost of living is skyrocketing,” said 73-year-old Chusri Kaewkhio in Bangkok’s Khlong Toei slum.

Her 75-year-old husband Suchart Kaewkhio lies on a bed, in an adult diaper, staring up at the peeling paint and water-damaged ceiling but Chusri said they had no money for repairs.

They borrow cash each month to buy expensive milk for her husband’s feeding tube and are five months behind on their electricity bills.

There is a cultural expectation in Thailand that adult children will look after their parents as they age.

But economist Burin said this is unsustainable in the long term as the economy grapples with a smaller workforce, lower growth and consumer spending.

While men work until about 65, Thai women start dropping out of the workforce around 50 to care for ageing parents and in-laws, researcher Kirida noted, adding that there needs to be an increase in affordable elderly day-care centres.

Orn Keawwilat, 57, faces a difficult juggling act – caring for her sick elderly parents while running a small general store to support her household of 12.

Her bedridden father Arj, 88, recently had a fall trying to get to the bathroom and has lost the ability to speak because of motor neurone disease.

“He has to be hand fed and supervised all the time because sometimes he chokes,” Orn said.

Thailand’s demographic shift requires major physical and cultural changes and investment.

The labour ministry is considering lifting the retirement age beyond the current 55-60 years old.

Australia joins Singapore, China, Japan in tackling woes of an ageing population

A future government may be required to lift the value-added tax from seven to 10 per cent as well as consider taxing wealth and inheritance, Burin said.

Bangkok governor Chadchart Sittipunt is ramping up elderly activity centres and health clinics.

But for many, retirement with dignity is a pipe dream.

A former teacher for 30 years, Aew never married, lost her home during the pandemic and now sleeps on seats at the Bang Sue Grand railway station.

“The pension is not enough. I also make plastic flowers to sell on the street … But I want a job,” the 70-year-old said.