Indonesia election 2024: could rise of Jokowi’s ‘political clan’ boost Prabowo Subianto’s chances?

“We have periodic meetings with Pak Jokowi. And as a young political party, we also seek his guidance as the country’s leader and someone who is very experienced in politics,” Natalie said, referring to Widodo’s nickname.

“We did casually mention what Pak Jokowi’s opinion would be if Kaesang were to join PSI. Pak Jokowi … said it was up to Kaesang. I have the impression he highly respects his children’s freedom to choose their path in life,” she added.

A key member of PSI’s pro-Ganjar faction, Mohamad Guntur Romli, left the party to join PDI-P when PSI apparently switched its backing to Prabowo. Guntur jumped ship to PDI-P ostensibly because of its strong support for Ganjar, according to analysts.

Kaesang’s political ascension within PSI signals his father’s support for the bid by Prabowo for the presidency, according to Fedullah Ahmad, a political analyst at the Indonesian consultancy KRA Group.

“This is one of the clearest signs from Jokowi to voice via PSI’s support for Prabowo. But it’s not 100 per cent clear. We have to wait to see what PSI will do,” he said.

The developments involving Kaesang could also be a hint of differences between Widodo and his PDI-P given his supposed preference for Prabowo over Ganjar, the party’s pick, said Fedullah.

PDI-P’s rules ban cadres from having family members who are affiliated with other political parties. The governor of Maluku, Murad Ismail, was recently dismissed from PDI-P after his wife joined the rival National Mandate Party.

However, PDI-P appears unwilling to face down the president and has sought to downplay the issues. When asked about Kaesang, Guntur Romli declined to comment saying, “PDI-P will only comment on PDI-P affairs, while PSI & Kaesang are not PDI-P issues”.

Puan Maharani, a PDI-P member and the daughter of party chairwoman Megawati Sukarnoputri, congratulated Kaesang on his new position and rejected talk that it was a political manoeuvre by Widodo’s family.

Can Indonesia’s Anies Baswedan and VP pick win with ‘total opposite’ ideals?

Kevin O’Rourke, chief of Reformasi Information Services, an Indonesia-based political risk consultancy, said PDI-P has no choice but to overlook its rules over Kaesang’s appointment.

“There’s no way PDI-P can oust Jokowi from PDI-P, that would be ruinous for PDI-P’s vote share in the election,” he said.

“Widodo is planting seeds for the future for his clan. He’s got two sons and a son-in-law [in politics], and the PSI has a toehold,” O’Rourke said. “Although PSI is not in parliament, it has strategic shares in provincial assemblies like Jakarta and a few other places. It’s a suitable building block for a young figure like Kaesang.”

However, Natalie dismissed any idea of Widodo’s plan to build a political dynasty, arguing that in a democracy, a person’s political pedigree was not a guarantee of electoral success. “A lot of incumbents, political blue bloods, when they joined the political competition, they lost the candidacy. You need to convince the people.”

Indonesia’s Prabowo casts himself as ‘Jokowi’s man’ in third bid for presidency

The question now is whether Kaesang can carve his own path to appeal to voters, analysts said.

At the event announcing his new party position, Kaesang wore a casual checked shirt – his father’s signature style when he ran to become governor of Jakarta more than a decade ago.

Kaesang’s sartorial choice was symbolic of Widodo’s trajectory from an outsider to yet another head of a powerful family in Indonesian politics. O’Rourke said, “To Kaesang’s credit he’s going via the right route by planning to run first in a local race. It’s sensible and practical.”