Donald Trump leads Joe Biden by 10 points in new poll of the 2024 US presidential race

As US President Joe Biden ramps up his 2024 re-election bid, he continues to face a sceptical electorate, with the incumbent receiving low marks on key issues including the economy and immigration.

And with Biden poised to face former president Donald Trump in a potential rematch of their 2020 contest, the latest Washington Post-ABC News poll showed Trump leading the president by 10 points (52 per cent-42 per cent) – a result that even the newspaper suggests may be an outlier.

A Fox News national poll released earlier this month showed Trump leading Biden 48 per cent-46 per cent among registered voters, while a recent Quinnipiac University survey showed Biden ahead of Trump 47 per cent-46 per cent among registered voters.

A Wall Street Journal poll released last month showed both men tied at 46 per cent each among registered voters.

And a new NBC News poll released on Sunday also showed Biden and Trump tied at 46 per cent among registered voters.

In explaining how Trump’s 10-point lead could potentially be an outlier, The Washington Post highlighted “the difference between this poll and others, as well as the unusual make-up of Trump’s and Biden’s coalitions in this survey”.

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Should Trump become the Republican nominee, he would clearly be very competitive in a race with Biden at this juncture, but several numbers stand out in The Washington Post-ABC News poll.

In both the 2016 and 2020 presidential elections, Trump won 46 per cent and 47 per cent of the national popular vote, respectively.

So the former president now earning support from 52 per cent of the electorate – when he remains widely unpopular among a broad segment of voters – could be seen by many as an outlier.

The poll also found that Trump had a 30 per cent lead with male voters (62 per cent -32 per cent), while Biden had a 9 per cent edge among women (52 per cent -43 per cent).

In 2020, Trump won male voters by two points (50 per cent-48 per cent) nationally, while Biden captured the female vote by a more robust 11-point margin (55 per cent-44 per cent), according to Pew Research.

The new Washington Post-ABC News survey also showed Trump with a 19-point lead (55 per cent-36 per cent) among voters aged 18-39 and an eight-point lead among voters aged 40-64 (52 per cent -44 per cent), while Biden had a one-point lead (48 per cent-47 per cent) among voters aged 65 years and older.

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US former president Donald Trump pleads not guilty to 2020 election charges

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In 2020, Biden easily captured both millennials and Gen Z voters by roughly 20 points, and Democrats are relying on these groups to boost the president and vulnerable Senate candidates in key swing states.

Last year, young voters came out strong for Democratic candidates, notably boosting the party’s fortunes in Georgia, New Hampshire, Michigan, and Pennsylvania, among other states.

While many Democrats have expressed concerns about Biden’s low marks in polls this year, the president himself has not been shy about questioning their accuracy.

“You all told me that there was no way we were going to do well in this off-year election,” Biden told Noticias Telemundo earlier this year as he referenced the 2022 midterm elections, which saw Democrats vastly outperform expectations in races across the country. “I told you from the beginning we’re going to do well.”

“Y’all told me I couldn’t win the general election. We did well,” he added.